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Nokia Gains 22% Even As It Bleeds Share Outside Of Emerging Markets

Trends aren't good

Nokia, which competes with Apple, Research in Motion and Motorola in the mobile phone market, has lost share in developed markets like the U.S. and Europe over the past few years.

We believe the market share loss was caused by insufficient focus on customer needs, delays in introducing new operating systems, and incompatibility with networks of telecom operators. We expect Nokia’s share in developed markets to fall further over the coming years.

Despite weakness in the company’s developed market growth prospects, we maintain a price estimate of $12.44 for Nokia, roughly 22% ahead of market price. Nokia generates an estimated 53% of its value from emerging markets (vs. 17% from developed markets), limiting the impact of downside to its developed market operations.

Insufficient Customer Focus

Nokia has struggled to match the evolving needs of U.S. and European consumers, as its mobile phones have often fallen short of customers’ customization preferences. In addition, Nokia was late in launching touch screen phones, allowing its competitors to take advantage of a head start into this lucrative market.

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Nokia’s phone design has also drawn criticism. Demand for thin and lightweight phones has been on the rise over the past few years, but Nokia was unable to successfully implement these features in its phone design.

Operating System Release Delays

Symbian 3, Nokia’s enhanced version of mobile operating system (OS) due for launch in Q2 of 2010 was delayed by three months. (1) The Symbian 3 launch represented a real opportunity for Nokia to compete with leading phones like the iPhone and Blackberry, as it had highlighted improved features like multi-touch, fast flip scrolling and free navigation software. Unfortunately, these delays only hampered Nokia’s brand image.

We’ve previously written that Nokia’s N8 smartphone, its first to run Symbian 3, will likely produce minimal upside to our base market share projections. (Can Nokia’s N8 Smartphone Boost Market Share)

More recently, Nokia also announced the delay of its new E7 smartphone, which will now debut in early 2011. (2)

GSM Struggles

Having seen success in the emerging markets with its GSM based mobile phones, Nokia tried to repeat the effort in developed markets as well. However, the majority of telecom operators (Verizon, Sprint) in the US use the CDMA network, and hence Nokia’s GSM-based phones were not compatible with these telecom operators.

Nokia’s Share to Decline in Developed Markets

We estimate that developed markets constitute around 17% of the $12.44 Trefis price estimate for Nokia’s stock. We believe that Nokia will continue to struggle to stand its ground amid the onslaught of competitors in these markets, and project a decline in the company’s market share from around 27% in 2009 to under 20% by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

You can modify our forecast above to see how Nokia’s stock value would be affected if its share in the developed markets were to revive.

You can see the complete $12.44 Trefis Price estimate for Nokia’s stock here.

Notes:

1) The Wall Street Journal: After Delay, Nokia Ships New Smartphone

2)?The Wall Street Journal: Nokia Delays E7 Smartphone Release

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Trefis members constitute more than tens of thousands of users of the Trefis platform, inclusive of investors, financial analysts, and business professionals who use the Trefis platform to create their own models and price estimates.

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Gilani seeks support from opposition

Gilani meets Shahbaz Sharif and calls on Chaudhry Shujaat in a frantic effort to make new allies. PHOTO: AFP

ISLAMABAD:?Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani met with Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif on Monday in what analysts describe as a desperate bid to shore up support and make new allies following the MQM’s announcement of its defection to the opposition benches in the Senate and the National Assembly, which has stripped the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of its already slender majority in the parliament.

Gilani telephoned Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid (PML-Q) leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain early Monday morning seeking his support following the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM’s) decision to sit on the opposition benches. Gilani is expected to meet the PML-Q leader later today.

The ruling PPP has 125 members in the National Assembly, 47 short of simple majority to keep the government in office. It has support from Awami National Party (ANP) with 13 lawmakers, five from the Pir Pagara-led Functional League and around 17 independent members. The PPP?needs at least 12 seats to survive and the prime minister is expected to talk about the possible alliance between PPP and?PML-Q in today’s meeting.

Gilani faces an imminent no-confidence motion in the National Assembly, forcing the PPP to look for new allies. According to an earlier report in The Express Tribune, the PML-Q, which is the second largest opposition group with 51 seats in the National Assembly, said it will not move the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Gilani.

Express 24/7 reported that Shujaat said they will?listen to Gilani?and then consult other party leaders before reaching a conclusion.

PML-Q, JUI-F hold meeting in Lahore

Meanwhile, PML-Q and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F) held a meeting in Lahore to discuss their future course of action. Addressing a press conference after the meeting with Chaudhry Shujaat, JUI-F leader Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haidri demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Gilani saying that it was better for him to resign with all his cabinet.

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Benazir murder case: Accused police officials submit bail application

Counsel of detained officers submits application saying the two men are innocent.

The detained policemen in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case, former City Police Officer (CPO) ?Rawalpindi Saud Aziz and Superintendent Police (SP) Khurram Shahzad, have filed a bail application in the Rawalpindi Anti Terrorism Court that has been hearing the case.

The counsel of the detained police officers took the stance in the application that the?two men?are innocent. He argued that the Joint Interrogation Team of Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) has found no direct evidence against them.

Saud Aziz and Khurram Shahzad are on a judicial remand after the FIA’s request for an extension in the physical remand was rejected last week.

The?FIA has been?ordered to present them before the court on January 7, when the bail application will also be heard.

Earlier, the legal counsel for former CPO, Waheed Anjum had claimed while addressing a press conference in Rawalpindi that his client was being victimised by his portrayal as the killer of Benazir Bhutto as the allegations against him were yet to be proven. He had said that the allegations levelled against the former CPO were baseless and that both the accused were public servants and did not have links with any political factions.

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