Stock Rockets To Ride The Resumption Of The Rally

Just a monster

This market has shown itself to follow a very technical path over the course of this rally. The market started the September run with a perfect gap and go scenario that ignited from a descending channel.?Since then, the move higher was calculated with a lot of participation from the strong leading stocks we list on the morning rundown often. All these leading stocks, many in tech, made new move highs before the indices, and that’s the way it’s supposed to be in a healthy market.

The S&P 500 peaked in the 1226-1227 area and gave us some clues that we were going to have our first “pull-back” The question was, how deep would it be??The S&P put a reactionary low in at the 1173 area around the 50-day moving average, which also happened to be the 25% retracement level of the move from 1040 to 1227 high. The confluence of factors gave us confidence this area would hold. We then had a nice oversold bounce back to the 1200 area!

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As we hit the reactionary low it was time to measure the action of the leaders. Most leaders pulled in less or the same percentage as the market, giving us further signs that the market would not “fall apart”. In a more perilous correction, leading stocks typically fall 1.5x to 2.5x faster than the index, but we didn’t see that type of action.

Netflix, salesforce.com, Amazon.com, Apple, Baidu.com, Riverbed Technology, ?Chipotle Mexican Grill, Las Vegas Sands and F5 Networks held in strong, and even somewhat forgotten stocks like?SanDisk, Cree, and VMWare started to perk up on that oversold bounce.?With today’s bounce some are already making new highs again.

So if you take a look at the headlines we’ve seen over the last several weeks, from Elections to QE2 to Europe to Korea, there have been plenty of reason for the markets to show indecision and possibly pull-in more strongly. But instead we have seen signs that the headlines are no longer the most important piece of the puzzle for the markets.

The correlation between stocks and bonds has lessened, and investors are choosing to focus more on the valuation and growth prospects of individual companies than macro risks. As traders, we have been able to focus on the actions of individual stocks and place less emphasis on the macro, a fact that is conducive to better trading if you can take advantage.

It’s never easy as the action unfolds, and we all continue to learn every day, but the charts are once again pointing the way. Right now, they are telling us there are some very exciting stocks out there that we should be looking to buy on pullbacks.

Have a Great Thanksgiving! Enjoy your family and friends. This is a great holiday to be thankful for what you have, take a deep breath and be happy you’re alive!

*Disclosure: Long AAPL, SPY

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Myth busted: Chief justice also got a plot

Justice Chaudhry allotted plot soon after 2002 elections

ISLAMABAD:?The accountability body of the Parliament, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), has received an official report from the Housing Ministry that shatters an eight-year-old perception that the incumbent Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) has never been given a piece of land by the government.

CJP Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry was allotted a one-kanal plot during former President General Pervez Musharraf’s reign – which he owns to date in Islamabad’s residential sector G-14/4.

Though it was recently reported that a number of judges – including several former chief justices of Pakistan such as Riaz Ahmed Sheikh, Ajmal Mian, Irshad Hassan Khan and others – had been allotted plots in Islamabad since 1996, Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry was the only name not seen in the lists.

It was also widely disseminated through the media that the incumbent chief justice had not been given a plot. However, an allotment to the CJP was made soon after the 2002 general elections – which took place after the Supreme Court had endorsed the October 12, 1999, coup and gave sweeping mandate to General Pervez Musharraf to amend the Constitution. A list compiled by the housing ministry of plot allotments to bureaucrats, judges and journalists spread over hundreds of pages, available with The Express Tribune, shows that Justice Chaudhry, then a Supreme Court judge, was given a one kanal plot on Dec 18, 2002 – six days after his 54th birthday.

The official documents further reveal that the then CJP Sheikh Riaz Ahmed was also allotted a plot on Dec 17, 2002, while two judges of the Lahore High Court, Justice Faqeer Mohammad Khokar and Justice Mumtaz Ali Mirza were also allotted plots in G-14 on the same day.

The report about the allotment of plots was submitted by the housing ministry after the Public Accounts Committee chairman Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan had issued directives to furnish a list of all those who were allotted plots in Islamabad since 1996.

Interestingly, Nisar did not seek a list of such allotments from 1991 when Nawaz Sharif, his party’s chief, had first become the prime minister. He also did not direct the ministry of defence to submit a list of land allotted to military generals who have been regularly getting agricultural land in the fertile areas of the country, the Seraiki region in particular, at a rate of under Rs180 per acre.

One official was of the opinion that Nisar did not issue such instructions as he has a military background himself. His father was recruited during the colonial period and his brother Lt. Gen. Iftikhar Ali Khan served as defence secretary during Sharif’s government.

However, the papers presented before the PAC reveal that, unlike the other 15 judges of the SC, Justice Chaudhry did not take a second plot in Islamabad. This despite the fact that under the revised policy of the government, approved by then prime minister Shaukat Aziz, he and his colleagues were entitled to two plots. CJ Chaudhry also did not apply for a plot under the curious recent scheme of the “Prime Minister Assistance Package”, meant exclusively for judges – unlike the 17 other judges of the Supreme Court who got plots through this scheme.

The present government is said to have also offered to allot a second plot to the CJP – but he has declined the offer. At the time of his refusal, it was widely reported in the media that he did not own any plots in Islamabad – a ‘fact’ that has now, given the official list of the housing ministry, been rebuffed.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 25^th, 2010.

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'Explosives used in terror attacks come from Afghanistan'

Malik says Pakistani law enforcement personnel will be given special training about how to deal with IED devices. PHOTO: EPA

ISLAMABAD:?Interior Minister Rehman Malik claimed on Thursday that Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) that were used in terrorist activities in Pakistan?were actually manufactured in Afghanistan.

He was?addressing?the IED National Counter conference in Islamabad.

Malik said intelligence agencies have found that?93 per cent explosives used in terrorist activities in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa were manufactured in Afghanistan.

“With naked eyes, you can see on the border… that the terrorists are coming towards Pakistan, along with arms and ammunition.”

He said that the Pakistani police and law enforcement personnel will be given special training about how to deal with IED devices.

“When we were asked to do more, we have done much much more. And today you have seen, the crossing from our side is nominal,” said Malik.

The minister blamed Afghan militiamen for destroying bio-metric systems that made it impossible to identify the tens of thousands of people who cross the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan daily.

“We really do not know how many terrorists, how many drug barons, how many criminals are crossing every day,” said Malik.

Malik used his speech to request greater assistance from the international community in boosting police training and forensic capabilities. “We need your moral support. We need your practical support in building the capacity, both for the police and of course our armed forces.

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Forecast For Gray Lady Is More Pain

Stock faces strong headwinds

Last week we wrote an article on The New York Times Company and highlighted a sanguine view of the company based on a 25% upside scenario driven by its online business, which we feel will benefit from the increasing use of mobile devices and influence of social media. Today we take a look at the difficulties facing its print advertising and circulation segments that represent about 28% and 32% of our Trefis $8.46 price estimate, respectively.

Falling print ad dollars and lower circulation creates a one, two punch that NYT will have to overcome.

1) Print Ad Business in Decline

We forecast that the U.S. newspaper print advertising market for national scale publications like the New York Times or Wall Street Journal, owned by News Corp, will decline from around $4.4 billion in 2009 to around $3 billion by the end of Trefis forecast. Due to these macro headwinds, NYT’s stock could continue to struggle.

According to the management, newspaper print advertising sales declined in Q3 2010 from decreased advertising from healthcare, live entertainment industry and cable companies when compared with Q3 2009. NYT’s retail and classified ad business also declined due to a weakness in automotive, real estate and recruitment categories.

If this business declines at a faster pace to $3.5 billion during the forecast period, this takes just under 6% off of our price estimate.

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2) Falling Circulation

NYT’s daily and weekend circulation has declined at a rapid rate in the past and is expected to decline further. Growing preference for reading news online is enabling users to avoid newspaper subscriptions.

Online news not only provides a cheaper source for reading news, but also provides real time information, which print newspapers fail to provide. The declining circulation will mean that the print advertising rates will continue to decline, which will mean that the overall newspaper print advertising market will continue to suffer.

We estimate that NYT’s daily circulation will continue to decline from around 980,000million in 2009 to around 685,000 by the end of Trefis forecast period. If this falls to 600,000, this chips about 3% off our price estimate.

You may modify our forecast for the above drivers to form your own estimates.

You can see the complete $8.46 Trefis Price estimate for New York Times stock here.

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No mercy petition, no presidential pardon

Officials say that the president’s power to grant clemency only extends to tazir punishments

LAHORE:?The home department has not yet received a mercy petition from Aasia Bibi or her family, Dr Jamal Yousaf, the additional secretary home department, told The Express Tribune.

Aasia Bibi, a Christian, was awarded a death sentence after being convicted of blasphemy by a trial court in Sheikhupura last week. The trial lasted 14 months.

The absence of such a petition means that the president cannot pardon Aasia Bibi just yet. Government officials and lawyers that The Express Tribune talked to about the possible legal course of action that Aasia Bibi can take, agree that the president cannot pardon her.

An official of the home department, requesting anonymity, said that Aasia Bibi only has the right to appeal the Lahore High Court (LHC) against the decision of the trial court right now. “In case the LHC rejects her appeal, she can go to the Supreme Court. If the apex court also upholds her death sentence, the convict can then request the president for clemency,” he said.

The official added that according to the legal procedure, when the apex court rejects the appeal against a death sentence, the prisons department sends a request to the sessions judge for signing black warrants of the death row prisoner and fixing a date for execution. A copy of the document is also forwarded to the Presidency, interior ministry and the home department.

During this, the concerned superintendent of jail can forward a mercy petition, either on the request of the death row prisoner or her family, along with the relevant documents. These documents that are submitted to the home department include a copy of the FIR, a copy of the judgment of the trial court, copy of the orders of the concerned high court, Supreme Court and medical certificate of the inmate.

According to Article 45 of the Constitution of Pakistan, the president has the power to grant pardon, reprieve and respite, and to remit, suspend or commute any sentence passed by any court, tribunal or other authority.

The home department official also said that the Punjab government had observed – in its reply to the federal government’s proposal to abolish the death penalty – that the power of the president to grant pardon only extends to Tazir punishments.

A sentence under a Tazir is imposed on the state’s command and not as a right of the individual under Allah’s law, the Punjab government had held.

Muhammad Safdar Shaheen Pirzada, a lawyer, also said, “The president can grant pardon to a person who has committed any offence against the state. However, the president has no power to extend pardon if an offence is ?omitted against religion, the Holy Prophet (pbuh) or Allah.”

Asif Ali Zardari who was sworn in as president in September 2008 had suspended the execution of prisoners on death row in November, 2008 till December, 2010.

Published in The Express Tribune November 24^th, 2010.

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Dish Faces Slew Of Issues But Stock Still Gets To $25

Stock poised to pick up 33%

Dish Network, the second largest satellite-based pay-TV service provider in the U.S., recently released its third quarter earnings. As a result of continued stunted growth in the subscriber base and mounting competitive pressure, we have lowered our price estimate for Dish Network’s stock to $24.87, which is about 30% ahead of the current market price.

Dish competes with satellite pay-TV service provider DirecTV, cable companies like Comcast & Time Warner Cable and telecom operators like AT&T and Verizon in pay-TV business.

One of the key takeaways from the earnings was that Dish Network’s margin outlook looks grim. Mounting competitive pressure, changing industry dynamics and the inability to grow its subscriber base are likely to put pressure on the company’s gross margins as well as lead to increased SG&A costs.

Currently we forecast gross margins to decline to a little over 44% by end of our forecast period. However, if they were to decline further to 40%, it can knock off more than 8% from our price estimate. Increased SG&A costs can further add to this downside.

1) Alternative Platforms a Threat

Only a few years ago, pay-TV service was the primary medium for video content however this is changing now. Alternative video platforms like Netflix and Hulu are emerging and posing threat to pay-TV industry’s profits. Dish Network acknowledged this threat in its recent earnings mentioning that while they may not lose customers as a result, they may lose ARPU (average monthly revenue per user) from that customer as more content is available on these alternate platforms.

2) Competitors Pressure Margins

Time Warner Cable hinted during their earnings that they will be introducing low-cost programming packages to address lower end of the market. Such competitor moves hamper Dish Network’s ability to raise prices and the company may be required to aggressively promote its own low-cost packages and possibly reduce prices for some packages in order to address the threat. This will further put pressure on gross margins.

3) Dish May Need to Spend More to Gain Subs

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While Dish Network is struggling to retain its subscribers, DirecTV has been doing fairly well. DirecTV gained about 174,000 ^[] net subscribers in Q3 2010 as opposed to a loss of net 29,000 ^[] subscribers for Dish. Its subscriber churn was significantly lower than that for Dish.

In order to compete, Dish Network may be required to things differently. The company may be forced increase its marketing spend and offer additional services like watching videos from its library over the Internet for free or minimal costs. This may increase subscriber acquisition costs for Dish Network, and consequently, SG&A.

Dish Network is in a phase of balancing subscriber growth while keeping costs in check. However from the looks of it, it seems that the company that will struggle with intensifying competition.

You can see the complete $24.87 Trefis price estimate for Dish Network’s stock here.

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