Suicide attack in Bannu claims 6 lives

Explosion targets police vehicle, 5 dead and several injured. Child among casualties.

BANNU:?A suicide attack occurred in Bannu on Tuesday morning, killing six people and leaving several?injured.

Two policemen, two?civilians?and one child are among the dead. The injured have been shifted to the District Headquarters hospital in Bannu.

Express 24/7 correspondent Umer Farooq reported that the explosion took place in front of the house of former Minister for Housing and Planning?Malik Naqibullah. The suicide attacker targetted a police vehicle?which was on routine patrol?in the Milad Park area of Chambeli Chowk in Bannu.

“It was a suicide attack. The bomber came on foot and detonated himself near a police van close to a police station,” said Bannu police chief Iftikhar Khan.

“Our van was the target of the blast,” police official Raza Khan told AFP.

Police have cordoned off the area and investigations are underway to?track down?militant links.

In September this year an IED explosion ?occurred next to a security convoy in Janikhel, Bannu.

Kyhber Pakhtunkhwa has witnessed a?series?of?deadly explosions that have added to the?unrest in the region.

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Less-than-transparent: Transparency to run graft hotline for US

Berlin based organisation tasked to ensure proper use of American aid money.

KARACHI:?In what has the makings of an awkward situation, the United States has, for ensuring proper use of financial assistance it has provided Pakistan, enlisted the services of an organisation that has been at bitter odds with the government of Pakistan as of late.

The much-maligned Transparency International (TI) will set up and run a graft hotline that will be open to Pakistanis who want to report any peculiarities or complaints regarding the use of American aid by both government and private parties. The service will be run in all local languages, said Ambassador Robin Raphel, US Coordinator for Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan at a press briefing on Monday at the consul general’s residence.

The confidence that the US government is reposing in Berlin-based TI is in stark contrast to the relationship between the Pakistan government and the TI’s local wing, whose chief claims that he has been facing all sorts of pressure – including ‘death threats’ – following the release of a contentious corruption report by the organisation. The report had it that corruption had increased in Pakistan since the current government took over – a claim that the government took?umbrage to, saying it was unsubstantiated and mala fide, and aimed at hurting the PPP’s credibility.

Since then, there has been plenty of mudslinging, including a lawsuit filed by the TI-Pakistan chief against key government leaders, and a resolution passed by the Sindh provincial assembly against the corruption report.

It is unclear how this conflict will be dealt with, but the understanding is currently in the process of vetting. If it goes through, it could present an embarrassing situation for the PPP-led current government, which has gone out of its way to stress that the TI-Pakistan was pushing vested agendas – a claim that has found support in many quarters, including the media.

Meanwhile, speaking more regarding the efforts to ensure transparency, the US administration’s point person for handling the millions of dollars in aid it is providing Pakistan for rebuilding its infrastructure in the aftermath of devastating floods, Ms Raphel said that reports regarding USAID having approached the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) over some cases of graft were untrue.

She said that the meeting was only between the US’ own financial taskforce and NAB on how to improve coordination and communication in cases of graft.? She said that the Islamabad office of USAID had an Inspector General working on cases of auditing and irregularities.

She added that the US had put in place safeguards, which included the setting of “benchmarks” in projects to track where and how the money was being spent. Another safeguard, she said, was a strict and thorough “pre-award assessment” of companies vying to use US funds”.

The money provided by the US to the government, said Ms Raphel, goes into a “special account” and is not pooled in with other money being spent on similar projects, so that it can be tracked. This, she said, was all an effort in “responsible stewarding of [American] taxpayers’ money.”

Clearly, there are plenty of measures in place – but when asked if she was satisfied with them, the ambassador avoided a direct answer, and said that such questions always cropped up when financial aid of this magnitude is provided.

Devolution

Ms Raphel said that she was in Karachi to consult with government officials, civil society and other parties to cater to “the specifics of each province.” Ms Raphel stressed that the needs of each province were unique, and such an initiative was also important in light of the 18th Amendment and the devolution plan.

She said she had already met leaders of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and would continue to meet with the provincial leaderships of the provinces.

RGST

Ambassador Raphel also spoke positively of the contentious reformed general sales tax (RGST) initiative by the government. She said that the RGST would not be the “only” initiative that the government would require, but is one that the government needs to take immediately.

Speaking about the opposition that the government is facing on the issue, Ambassador Raphel said that new taxes and tax systems always face opposition. Maintaining good relations with institutions such as the International Monetary Fund was important for Pakistan, she said.

Republicans in the Congress

The purse strings of the state are controlled by the lower house of the parliament, said Ambassador Raphel, referring to potential hurdles in finances and assistance for Pakistan.

Following the mid-term elections, the Republicans have gained control of the lower house, which means that the Democrat-run administration will be fettered when it comes to fresh initiatives in the face of a hostile house.

The ambassador corroborated fears about the policy hurdles that were in place following the elections.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 30^th, 2010.

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Verizon To Vault $33 From Fatter Data Sales After 4G Launch

Verizon customers will spend more on data with 4G

Verizon is likely to launch its 4G LTE network in December 2010. This initial launch will cover 38 major markets including Boston, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington D.C. However by end of 2013, Verizon plans to extend its LTE network to all of its current 3G coverage.

Verizon has a competitive advantage in the sense that it is ahead of AT&T in terms of LTE deployment (early market entry advantage) and its LTE 4G technology will offer better download speed than Sprint’s WiMax 4G technology (technological advantage).

Additionally, LTE-based smartphones may be available in early 2011, and so Verizon should gain from higher growth in its data revenue per subscriber leading to potential upside of 5% to our price estimate.

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Mobile Data Traffic Rising

The demand for mobile data has seen a tremendous rise due to the success of smartphones. Newer devices like tablet computers, netbooks and notebooks are further expected to aid mobile data growth.

In the U.S., mobile data traffic has picked up since 2008 dramatically ^[]. Studies suggest that average data revenue per user has doubled since the launch of Apple’s iPhone ^[]. Overall, the U.S. wireless data market grew by 25% in Q3 2010 compared to Q3 of 2009, amounting to $14 billion ^[]. The rapid growth in this area is likely to continue and faster networks like 4G will support continued growth.

As a result Verizon’s data revenue per user can potentially increase more than we forecast. We currently forecast this figure to increase from an estimated $17.50 in 2010 to a little under $25.00 by the end of our forecast period. However if this figure rises to $30.00 instead, as a result of explosive data usage growth, our price estimate increases by 5%.

You can modify our forecasts above to see how data revenue per subscriber can impact Verizon’s stock.

You can see the complete $31.69 Trefis price estimate for Verizon’s stock here.

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Four Types Of Gift Giving That Will Leave You Broke

Gift-giving can set you back

There are many money traps we have to look out for in life: Getting into debt, an elaborate wedding, blindly signing for loans and more. But this holiday season, the money traps will come from your own generous and giving nature and how it?can get the better of you, and your wallet. Can you see yourself starring in any of these costly holiday roles???(For related reading, also take a look at Host A Holiday Party For Less.)

The Excessive Homemade Gifter
If you are planning on giving a thoughtful gift of homemade baked treats this year, be careful of feeling like it’s just not enough. There’s no need to rush out and buy a “real” gift. Although it may only cost you a fraction of the retail price to make your own chocolates, it doesn’t mean they are any less worthy. Consider the time, labor and love that goes into making those treats to be worth more than just buying a box of chocolates for friends and family, not to mention that?homemade usually?tastes better, too.

To put it in perspective, make a list of what you plan to give along with the time spent in baking, crafting and wrapping those treats, and step back to look at what it’ll cost you in time and money.

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The Too-Fair Gifter
It’s a wonderful trait to always want to treat everyone on your list equally, but it can get out of control when you try to be too fair. For instance, if your son asked for a single, costly present this year, but your daughter asked for a bunch of lower-priced items, don’t start trying to buy more for your son because you feel like your daughter has more. Set a budget for each child stick to it, even if it means some one only receives one present.

Fair gifters also fall prey to feeling guilty over?saving money by buying gifts on sale, so they end up spending over budget to equalize the gift giving.?Instead of spending the money, consider putting those savings into a future education savings account.

IN PICTURES: 5 Ways To Control Emotional Spending

The Surprised Gifter
You should have expected it – your new neighbors showed up with an unexpected gift for the whole family, but you are caught totally empty-handed. In an effort to reciprocate their goodwill, you rush out to buy yet another gift which is the straw that breaks your holiday budget’s back. Think about it this way: if there wasn’t an established tradition of gift giving, how could you have anticipated it? Cut yourself some slack and next time, set aside a slush fund for those unexpected gifts, or add your neighbors to next year’s budget.

Another?good way to handle these surprise gifts is to keep a spare gift set aside specifically for these occasions. If you end up with these gifts still in the cupboard at the end of the holiday season, you can reuse them next year, or gift them to yourself as a reward for staying within your budget.

The One-Up Gifter
It all started so innocently with one small gift of homemade cookies that your neighbors reciprocated with a very fancy bottle of wine, which made you want to buy something even nicer the next year to thank them for that bottle of wine, which they returned with a gift certificate for a swanky restaurant in town. This kind of gift giving tends to spiral out of control, because neither of you seems to want to stop. Unfortunately, this will never go back to just gifting each other with homemade cookies, but you can give yourself some financial relief by giving the same gift you gave last year. This should send the signal that you’ve hit your limit.

Hopefully this hasn’t escalated to giving away exclusive concert tickets or expensive trips, but catching the gift-giving snowball before it turns into an avalanche will probably relieve both?parties’ wallets. You could always just invite your neighbors over for a great meal rather than buying them something, or maybe talk to them about setting a budget this year.

The Bottom Line
We all want to do the right thing, and when someone has been kind to you, we can’t help but want to reciprocate to show how grateful and appreciative we are. There’s nothing wrong with that, just keep that generosity in line with your budget. (For an interesting read, be sure to also check out 10 Ways To Make Money This Holiday Season.)

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Friends and foes condemn WikiLeaks

World leaders say leaks will weaken diplomacy; Pentagon warns there is no guarantee against another leak. PHOTO: AFP

Friend and foes alike of the United States turned on WikiLeaks Monday over its release of secret US diplomatic cables, saying the revelations undermined diplomacy and made the world less secure.

“This will weaken diplomacy around the world. It will weaken diplomacy in general, but first and foremost American diplomacy,” Sweden’s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said after the mass release.

“I see this rather as something that is making the world less safe,” he said.

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, object of much of the diplomatic discussion revealed by the WikiLeaks website, dismissed the documents as “worthless mischief” which would not affect relations with its Arab neighbours, exposed as having pressed for a US military strike on its nuclear sites.

Afghanistan said its ties with Washington would not be shaken by portrayals of President Hamid Karzai as an “extremely weak” and paranoid leader and his brother as a corrupt drugs baron.

“We don’t see anything substantive in the document that will strain the relationship,” Karzai’s spokesman Waheed Omer told reporters.

Global concern about Iran

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday said the content of the massive US document leak by WikiLeaks underlines broad world concern over Iran’s nuclear program.

“Any of the comments that are being reported on allegedly from the cables confirm the fact that Iran poses a very serious threat in the eyes of many of her neighbors and a serious concern far beyond her region,” Clinton said.

The chief US diplomat told a press briefing that widespread global unease about Iran was reflected in Washington’s ability last June to garner international support for a fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran.

People reading the cables will conclude “that the concern about Iran is well-founded (and) widely-shared,” said Clinton, who said Washington would continue to pursue policies “with like-minded nations to try to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

No guarantee against another leak

The Pentagon has taken steps to prevent more disclosures but there is no guarantee against more damaging leaks after Wikileaks published a huge trove of classified diplomatic cables, a spokesman said on Monday.

Colonel Dave Lapan told reporters that the Defense Department had tightened procedures for handling sensitive information but he did not expect changes to rules on who is permitted access to secret documents. The WikiLeaks website, which posted more than 250,000 classified documents on Sunday full of embarrassing details of diplomatic exchanges, has never revealed its source in a series of document dumps but suspicion has focused on a US Army private working in military intelligence, Bradley Manning, who is now under detention.

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LHC issues stay order against Aasia death sentence

LHC CJ serves notices to federation, governor Punjab for a reply to petition saying president has no right to grant pardon.

LAHORE:?The Lahore High Court (LHC) on Monday issued a?stay order against the death sentence of the blasphemy convict Aasia Bibi.

A petition had been filed in the Lahore High Court by Advocate Allah Bakhsh Leghari, contending?reports of a?presidential pardon.?The petitioner said?the president?did not have the right to grant a?presidential pardon as the decision was still pending in the court.

The Chief Justice of the Lahore High Court,?Khwaja Sharif has therefore issued a stay order and served notices to the federation and the governor Punjab for a reply.

Meanwhile, religious organisations and civil society members continue countrywide protests and demonstrations, for and against Aasia bibi’s sentence.

Earlier, The Express Tribune had reported that government officials and lawmakers were in agreement that the president cannot pardon Aasia Bibi. ?According to Article 45 of the Constitution of Pakistan, the president has the power to grant pardon, reprieve and respite, and to remit, suspend or commute any sentence passed by any court, tribunal or other authority. However, a home department official who had spoken to The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity had said that the Punjab government had observed – in its reply to the federal government’s proposal to abolish the death penalty – that the power of the president to grant pardon only extends to Tazir punishments.

A sentence under a Tazir is imposed on the state’s command and not as a right of the individual under Allah’s law, the Punjab government had held.

Muhammad Safdar Shaheen Pirzada, a lawyer, had also said, “The president can grant pardon to a person who has committed any offence against the state. However, the president has no power to extend pardon if an offence is ?omitted against religion, the Holy Prophet (pbuh) or Allah.”

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Govt seeks life imprisonment for five Americans

The defendants, Umar Farooq, Waqar Hussain, Rami Zamzam, Ahmad Abdullah Mini and Amman Hassan Yammer, had pleaded not guilty.

LAHORE:?A court on Monday accepted a government request to seek life sentences for five Americans already jailed for 10 years on terror convictions.

The five young men were found guilty in Sargodha last June of waging war against the state and funding a terrorist group.

They have appealed, but no date has been set for a new hearing. Prosecutors are now demanding that the court toughen their sentences to life imprisonment.

Deputy public prosecutor Rana Bahktiar told AFP that he lodged the request with a two-judge panel on behalf of the Punjab government.

“The court will now hear our petition simultaneously with the appeal filed by the five boys against their conviction,” Bakhtiar said.

Prosecutors believe the men planned to travel to neighbouring Afghanistan and join Taliban-led militants fighting US and NATO troops.

Investigators claim the Sargodha five planned to travel to South Waziristan, a training ground for militants in Pakistan’s lawless tribal belt that was targeted by a major military operation last year.

The defendants, Umar Farooq, Waqar Hussain, Rami Zamzam, Ahmad Abdullah Mini and Amman Hassan Yammer, pleaded not guilty, saying they came to attend a wedding and wanted to go on to Afghanistan to do humanitarian work.

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Wikileaks: Pakistan condemns 'irresponsible disclosure'

FO spokesperson Abdul Basit said the documents were being examined.

ISLAMABAD:?Pakistan, on Monday, condemned the release of what the New York Times called a quarter of a million confidential American diplomatic cables?released by whistleblower WikiLeaks, as an “irresponsible disclosure of sensitive official documents”.

The foreign office said it had been offically informed of the leaks by the US government in advance.

“At this stage we are examining the relevant documents and their contents,” ministry spokesman Abdul Basit told AFP when asked about the Times report.

The leaked cables revealed that the US has led top secret efforts to remove highly enriched uranium from Pakistan for years, worried it could be used to make an “illicit” nuclear device.

In May 2009, it quoted then US ambassador Anne Patterson as saying that Pakistan was refusing to schedule a visit by American technical experts. The Times attributed the reason to a nameless Pakistani official who said: “If the local media got word of the fuel removal, ‘they certainly would portray it as the United States taking Pakistan’s nuclear weapons’”. Islamabad has been adamant that its nuclear weapons are in safe hands and US President Barack Obama has publicly concurred. But the Times said the leaked documents showed the United States trying to remove the uranium from a research reactor, fearing it could be diverted for use in an “illicit nuclear device”.?The newspaper did not elaborate on how the United States had sought to remove the uranium or the nature of any such device. Experts estimate that Pakistan already has up to 100 nuclear weapons.

The United States has longstanding concerns about proliferation from Pakistan and is reported to have set up an elite squad that could fly into the country and attempt to secure its weapons should the government disintegrate.

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NIC land scam: UK to hand over key accused shortly

Mohsin Warraich to be handed over to FIA on December 9.

ISLAMABAD:?The government of the United Kingdom is said to have given firm assurance to Pakistan that one of the main accused in the multi-billion rupee National Insurance Corporation (NIC) scam, Mohsin Warraich, would be handed over to the FIA on December 9. Warraich is understood to be in hiding in London with his wife, Beenish Warraich, a UK national. Red warrants were issued against him last week.

However, Beenish Warraich, a barrister by profession and daughter of former health Minister Naseer Khan, is filing a case in a British court to stop the extradition. She is taking the plea that her husband and her father-in-law, Habibullah Warraich, a former minister and politician, are being victimised by the present government on political grounds.

Beenish Warraich is expected to take the plea that if her husband is handed over to the FIA, “he would be subjected to torture and other inhuman treatment.” ?In response, the Pakistan government is said to have given an assurance to the UK that FIA Director Zafar Ahmed Qureshi enjoyed a good reputation.

Beenish Warraich herself has been named in the NIC scam FIR as co-accused along with her husband, two sisters-in-law, mother-in-law and father-in-law Major (r) Habibullah Warraich, who is already in FIA custody after it was claimed that money taken from NIC was transferred to their accounts by Mohsin Warraich.

One top official claimed that the British government has already accepted the plea of the FIA that the Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry had specifically issued instructions on the last hearing of the NIC to bring the key accused of NIC scam, Mohsin Warraich, to Pakistan before December 9 when the CJ would next hear the case.

The CJ had observed in the last hearing that unless the two main accused – former NIC chairman Ayaz Khan Niazi and Mohsin Warraich – were either arrested or brought back to Pakistan, investigations would remain inconclusive.

The CJ had also ordered the arrest of former chairman NIC Ayaz Khan Niazi, who surrendered to the FIA in Karachi last week.

An FIA team from Lahore is being rushed to Karachi on Monday to bring the former chairman to Lahore, where two criminal cases are registered against him, along with Mohsin Warraich. Niazi was said to have surrendered himself before the FIA in Karachi so he would not land in the hands of Director Zafar Qureshi, who would have delved into the illegal activities that could involve the sons of leading politicians of the country.

Earlier, sources claimed that DG FIA Waseem Ahmed had held a meeting with diplomats of the UK high Commission in Islamabad seeking the extradition of Mohsin Warraich.

Warraich had flown to the UK from Dubai last week after red warrants were issued by the FIA for his arrest and subsequent hand over to Pakistan. It is believed that British diplomats had assured the DG FIA that Mohsin would be handed over after due process.

Director FIA Zafar Qureshi has recovered over Rs2 billion from the Warraich family since being appointed investigation officer in the case. A sum of Rs1.4 billion has been repaid out of a total of Rs1.6 billion by the family, while bank cheques worth Rs280 million were with the FIA and would be cashed before the end of December. In the second land deal, in which Rs1.2billion were paid by the NIC to Mohsin Warraich, a sum of Rs440 million has been recovered to date.

Talking to The Express Tribune from Dubai last week before flying to the UK, Mohsin Warraich claimed innocence. He said that he had not committed any fraud, as he was the seller and was paid the amount he had sought for the sale of his lands.

Mohsin Warraich lamented that his family was being victimised politically and female members of his family were being named in FIRs without reason. He claimed that the money transferred in accounts of female members of the family was related to “routine household expenditures.”

Published in the Express Tribune, November 28^th, 2010.

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Cargo plane crashes in Karachi

The crashed plane’s debris in the foreground as fire from burning jet fuel engulfs the area. PHOTO: MUHAMMAD ADEEL/EXPRESS

KARACHI:?A cargo plane crashed in a Naval housing colony near Karachi’s Dalmia area early Sunday morning.

Speaking to the media, Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) spokesman Pervais George said the plane was a Russian-made cargo plane which was heading to Sudan when it came down two minutes after take off.

The plane was an Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft bound for the Sudanese capital Khartoum. “It took off from Karachi at 1:45 am (20:45 GMT Saturday) and after one and a half minutes it crashed,” George added.

Rescue officials have so far confirmed that 10 people have died in the crash.

Express 24/7 correspondent Ahmed Jung reports that the plane crashed in the Naval Housing Scheme and 12 houses have been destroyed as a result of the crash. Residents of nearby areas felt the impact of the crash and fire and smoke can be witnessed emanating from the area.

According to Jung,there were eight people on board, all of them were Russians. Gaslines in the area have exploded and officials are trying to shut down the gas supply. Electricity supply in the area has also been shut down as the plane crashed through electricity poles, reports Jung.

Express 24/7 reported that eyewitnesses say the engine of the plane was seen on fire before the crash. Speaking to the media, the CAA spokesperson George, however, said the plane caught fire a minute after take off and that the pilot did not contact the authorities.

According to Express News correspondent Wasiq Muhammad, the fire had spread to the occupied residencies in the area.

Police and ambulances have reached the area and rescue operations are underway. The injured are being shifted to the civil hospital.

Rescue workers faced a lot of difficulty due to the scores of people that had gathered around the crash site. The Sindh governor also appealed to the people to move away from the site so rescue operations could be carried out properly.

Efforts were being made to extinguish the fire at the site and much of it was brought under control. Generators were used to light up the area in the absence of electricity supply.

Witnesses spoke of their horror at seeing a fireball racing through the night sky.

“I saw a fireball plummeting to ground,” milk seller Mohammad Raees told AFP. He had been going home on his motorbike after closing his shop.

“It was so huge and quick. I was terrified.

“I couldn’t see what it was. I sped up to save my life and after a few seconds I heard a deafening explosion, but thanks to Allah my life was saved and I was not injured.”

The explosion caused by the crash was so powerful that local residents thought it was triggered by a bomb, said Karachi police chief Fayyas Leghari.

Flames raged in four to five construction sites, but officials said the number of casualties could have been far higher if the plane had struck nearby residential buildings.

“The crash has created a large fire. The fire brigade is on site and trying to extinguish the flames, but the fire is too large to bring under control quickly, so it will take time,” he said.

“It was a huge blast. People thought it was a bomb blast. Police are trying to assess the number of casualties.”

Residents in nearby buildings left to spend the night with relatives and police were evacuating others, Leghari said.

The site was near to the military-controlled area where a Pakistani twin-engine turboprop crashed after take off from Karachi on November 5, killing all 21 people on board.

Twitter feed

@DrAwab RT @manipro yes iwas at stadium having tea with friends#karachi & saw the plane it was on fire & i have never seen such big fire in my life

@rai_azlan i hope this fire brigade operation be completed ASAP so that the loss can be controlled #pakistan #PlaneCrash #Karachi

@zeeshan_ahmed RT @BeingSamee: Electricty cut in #Askari4#Karachi …possibly due to #Russian plane crash at Dalmia!#Pakistan

@babushka99: Aircraft was refueled at Karachi for flight duration of 7 hours and 40 minutes. #Karachi

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Gap Will Get To $34 But Wal-Mart Tactics Don’t Help

Stock is on a comeback but promotions could take a bite

Gap, a leading global specialty retailer, reported its third quarter 2010 results on November 20. Gap competes with other specialty retailers like Aeropostale, Abercrombie & Fitch, J.Crew Group and Urban Outfitters.

With Black Friday deals, we noticed a flurry of promotional activities such as Wal-Mart and Best Buy’s free shipping promise, but we believe that aggressive promotions might also hurt some retailers including Gap. In particular, we are concerned that aggressive pricing campaigns could lead to margin pressure causing us to adjust our optimistic $34 Trefis price estimate for Gap’s stock.

Consumer Outlook Modestly Improving

Recent consumer data and some earnings make us cautiously optimistic on the consumer as we head into the holidays. As the outlook for the US brightens versus easy comparables last year, we could see a confidence for retailer stocks tick higher as the holiday season gets underway, especially following the announcement of J. Crew’s potential buyout.

We are generally growing more positive on the retailers, and we expect that major specialty retailers like Gap, Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle will see decent sales figures this holiday season in part due to increased promotional activities.

Last week we wrote that Abercrombie’s earnings gave us increased confidence in its profit margin and sales metrics outlook. (See Abercrombie & Fitch Sales, Profitability Lift Outlook)

With Gap on the other hand, we saw an increase in its inventory per square foot by 9% at the end of third quarter 2010, which may lead to increased markdowns in order to drive sales and add pressure to profit margins. While we are still positive on the stock, we need to watch this.

Lower Margins From Promotional Activities
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We are concerned that aggressive promotional activities this holiday season could provide some downside risk to our current profit margin forecasts. We expect EBITDA margins (a profit margin measure) to trend modestly higher from around 15% currently to around 17% in the coming years. However if this drops to 12%, this would reduce our price estimate by around 5%.

See our full estimates for Gap here.

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L’Oreal Lathers Up With Anti-Aging Line

The U.S. makes up almost 5% of the global skin care market worth over $90 billion in 2009. We estimate that this is largest and fastest growing segment within the personal beauty and personal care industry and will grow in excess of 5% year-on-year over our forecast horizon. ^[]

L’Oreal is a leading player in the beauty and skin care market and competes with companies like Revlon, Avon, Proctor & Gamble and Estee Lauder. Our price estimate of $22.74 for L’Oreal is slightly above the current market price.

Value of Skin Care to L’Oreal

Much of the growth in the skin care market is due to the relatively new anti-aging skin care segment, which we estimate constitutes close to 40% of the skin care market. We expect anti-aging products to continue to show robust growth in excess of 7.3% year-on-year and so is an important area of focus for L’Oreal. This niche segment is resilient as growth was steady during the economic downturn 2008-09, which led to declines in disposable income and consumer demand for personal care products as a whole.

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Anti-aging products, which initially targeted the baby boomers, are now increasingly targeting a younger demographic of 25 and above. The competition within anti-aging skin care is heating up and almost all players in the beauty and personal care segment have a range of anti-aging products.

The most popular product lines include Avon’s Anew, Estee Lauder’s Idealist and Resilience Perfectionist and Procter & Gamble’s Olay Regenerist and Olay Total Effects among others.

We estimate that skin care accounts for over 25% of L’Oreal’s stock and that L’Oreal’s share of the global skin care market will remain stable at around 13.5% in coming years.

Given the increasing importance of the anti-aging segment within skin care, much of the increase in market share depends on the success of L’Oreal’s RevitaLift, Skin Genesis and Age Perfect products.

If L’Oreal’s anti-aging products miss the mark and market share slipped to 10% by 2017 rather than increase to 13.5% as we forecast, this would reduce our Trefis price estimate by about 7%.

Please see our full company review here.

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Long March: Sunni Ittehad stumbles at Punjab govt roadblock

Sunni leaders say thousands arrested in province-wide crackdown, but minister says not one protestor arrested.

LAHORE:?The Sunni Ittehad Council’s long march from Rawalpindi to Lahore hit a major Punjab government roadblock on Saturday, as the planned mass protest failed to swell beyond a small trickle.

Sunni Ittehad leaders accused the provincial government of conducting a mass crackdown and arresting thousands of activists. The government denied that any arrests had been made and insisted the police were there only to provide security and maintain law and order.

Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said the police had tried to disrupt the schedule for the long march by holding up activists on the way at various roadblocks and delay their joining up with the main rally. They had also warned the heads of madrassas against encouraging their students to join the long march.

He said the police held up some 800 people at Sohawa Bridge. “After three hours there were only 300 left,” he added. He said the police also stopped the protestors from entering Rawalpandi city and told them to head to Lahore via the Expressway, but they would not listen and so the police had to stop them.

He denied claims from Sunni leaders of mass arrests, saying not a single activist had been arrested in Punjab. “We are doing this for the security of the Sunni leaders who are under serious threat,” Sanaullah said. “Fazle Kareem, Sarwat Ijaz Qadri and Hanif Tayyab have all been the subject of murder attempts by terrorists. It is the government’s duty to take steps for their security. We are not afraid of their protests or slogans.”

Sunni leaders gave varying estimates about the number of arrests, with Jamia Naeemia spokesman topping the charts with his claim of “7,000-8,000”. They warned the Punjab government that its actions would alienate Sunni Ittehad supporters.

“This will have huge repercussions for the PML-N because the people who follow Ahle Sunnat leaders think that the Punjab government is supporting the terrorists,” said Jamia Naeemia head Raghib Naeemi.

Naeemi, who participated in the long march, said that he would meet with the Sunni Ittehad leadership in Lahore to discuss what to do. “This long march was a popular demand,” he said. “The government has tear-gassed innocent people who were taking a stand against terror. They should focus on dealing with the issue rather than treating this initiative as a threat.”

Naeemi said that the decision to impose Section 144 to ban public assembly in various areas indicated a “great intolerance”. He insinuated that Sanaullah had pushed the Punjab government to crack down on the long march because he felt threatened by the council. He said Sanaullah should be sacked for having links to Ahmed Ludhianvi of Sipah-e-Sahaba, a banned group. “The government wants to make the people and country collapse,” said Sunni Ittehad Council chairman Sahibzada Fazle Karim. “It is the government’s job to eradicate terror and violence but they don’t seem to care about anything. We are challenging American-financed drone attacks, inflation, unemployment and most of all we are asking the government ensure the rule of law.”

Karim resigned on Saturday from the Muttahida Ulema Board, a government sponsored body that promotes sectarian harmony, in protest at the treatment of Sunni Ittehad activists.

SIC General Secretary Haji Hanif told The Express Tribune that the police began a crackdown two nights ago, “Even if Shabaz Sharif were to come with talk offers at this point we would ignore him because this is about protecting Pakistan against terrorism,” he said.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 28^th, 2010.

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Akamai Can Fatten Up On Government Work

Underdeveloped opportunity in government

Akamai, which operates in the content delivery and value-added solutions business, recently reported its third-quarter 2010 earnings. Akamai makes money delivering Web content for its customers and by providing value added service like dynamic site acceleration and advertising decision solutions. In this segment is competes with Level 3, AT&T and Limelight.

The company is witnessing growth across all of its business verticals with the highest growth observed in the public sector. While revenues from the e-commerce and media verticals have registered growth of close to 20% ^[] in the first 9 months of 2010 compared to same period last year, the public sector has registered a growth of over 32% ^[]. This has been driven by an increase in revenue per customer as well as increased customer count.

While our price estimate of $31.11 is well below the market price, we believe there is upside risk to our forecasts in light of the structural tailwinds in its core businesses.

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The majority of the public sector business for Akamai comes from the U.S., and within the U.S., from the federal sector. Akamai’s customers include both G2C (government-to-consumer) agencies and military. However there is still plenty of growth for the company when it comes to the state sector. In its earnings transcript, Akamai noted that states have generally not invested in services to improve process efficiency and delivery creating an opportunity for Akamai. ^[]

Despite growth in the public sector vertical, we estimate that public sector (government & NGO) constitutes about 4% to Akamai’s stock. This is because it has a significantly fewer number of customers when compared to other verticals like online shopping and media.

We estimate that Akamai will have close to 100 public sector customers by the end of 2010, and we expect this figure to exceed 130 by the end of our forecast period. While the uptick in public sector growth is encouraging, we note that there is limited upside. If Akamai gained 200 customers in this segment in the coming years , this implies about 2% upside to our estimates.

You can see the complete $31.11 Trefis price estimate for Akamai’s stock here.

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Drone strike kills two in North Waziristan

US drone strikes continue unabated in North Waziristan. PHOTO: FILE

PESHAWAR:?A US drone strike in the Hasankhel area of North Waziristan killed two suspected militants on Sunday.

According to Express 24/7 correspondent Iftikhar Firdous, there were conflicting reports from sources of there being no casualties and that the targeted militants had managed to escape before the strike. He said that there was no official confirmation on the number of casualties as yet.

Increasing number of attacks

The United States has been increasing attacks, and is reportedly?seeking to expand the areas inside Pakistan where Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) drones can operate, The Washington Post reported late Friday.

Citing unnamed US and Pakistani officials,?the newspaper said US officials were eyeing areas surrounding the Pakistani city of Quetta, where the Taliban leadership is believed to be hiding.

Pakistan on Saturday said that it would not allow the United States to expand the?drone operation on its soil.

“Action against militants in Pakistan’s territory will be carried out by Pakistan and under no circumstances will the drone attacks be allowed to expand,” said Foreign Office spokesperson Abdul Basit.

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Zardari, Jayaratne discuss Free Trade Agreement

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari (R) signs a guestbook while Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse looks on during the start of Zardari's three-day visit to Sri Lanka in Katunayake on November 27, 2010. PHOTO: AFP

COLOMBO:?The leaders of Pakistan and Sri Lanka Sunday expressed resolve to join hands against terrorism and to build up their trade and economic relations.

Prime Minister of Sri Lanka Dissanayake Mudiyanselage Jayaratne called on President Asif Ali Zardari here on Sunday and discussed ways to further strengthen ties between the two countries with a focus on exploring new avenues of cooperation.

President Zardari who is on a four-day visit to the island nation is here to hold wide ranging talks with the Sri Lankan leaders to expand economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, that already have an operational Free Trade Agreement.

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Defence Minister Ch. Ahmad Mukhtar and Chairman Board of Investment (BOI) are part of President’s delegation.

President Zardari congratulated the Sri Lankan Prime Minister on defeating terrorism and apprised him of Pakistan’s successes in this regard. Prime Minister Jayaratne thanked Pakistan for its moral and material support in countering terrorism.

The President and the Sri Lankan Prime Minister said both countries stand to benefit more from increased military exchanges and training at a regular pace, besides sharing of counter-terrorism measures and sharing of experiences.

They also called for consolidating cooperation in all spheres including trade, health, education and culture.

The President also highlighted the need for high level parliamentary exchanges. The Sri Lankan Prime Minister said following the revival of the parliamentary association a delegation will visit Pakistan soon.

The Sri Lankan Prime Minister said his country was keen to initiate new joint venture projects with Pakistan in several key areas and said the two private sectors can play a crucial role in this regard for the mutual good of the two peoples.

The two leaders discussed increased cooperation in financial and banking sectors. President Zardari said Pakistan values its relations with Sri Lanka and supports its territorial integrity and sovereignty. He said both the countries need to consult more frequently at multi lateral events.

The two leaders also exchanged views on preservation and promotion of the civilization heritage and increase of tourist traffic between the two countries.

Prime Minister Jayaratne appreciated the preservation and maintaining of the Buddhist heritage in Pakistan and said it would be a step forward towards building of a long lasting association between the two countries in all spheres.

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Sunni Ittehad Council warns of 'anarchy' if Aasia pardoned

Sunni Ittehad Coucil says the punishment cannot be waived. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD:?The Sunni Ittehad Council urged the government on Friday not to pardon a Christian mother sentenced to death for blasphemy, warning that it would lead to nationwide anarchy.

Politicians and conservative clerics are at loggerheads on whether President Asif Ali Zardari should pardon Aasia Bibi, a mother of five sentenced to hang for defaming the Prophet Mohammed (pbuh), under controversial blasphemy laws. While a growing number of moderate politicians have backed calls for clemency for Bibi, religious conservatives have organised a rival campaign.

“The pardon would lead to anarchy in the country,” the head of Sunni Ittehad Council, Sahibzada Fazal Kareem, told AFP. “Our stand is very clear that this punishment cannot be waived.”

Kareem said that the alliance would lead protests nationwide on Friday against any moves to pardon Bibi. The council opposes Taliban militants, which are fighting government troops in parts of northwest Pakistan, and has also organised a protest march against deadly attacks on Sufi shrines blamed on Islamist hardliners.

Pakistan has yet to execute anyone for blasphemy, but the case spotlights the Muslim country’s controversial laws on the subject, which rights activists say encourages extremism in a nation wracked by Taliban attacks. Minority affairs minister Shahbaz Bhatti presented a clemency plea to Zardari late Thursday on the grounds that the case against Aasia was based only on personal enmity.

Pope Benedict XVI has also called for Aasia’s release and said Christians in Pakistan were “often victims of violence and discrimination.” Aasia was arrested in June 2009 after Muslim women labourers refused to drink from a bowl of water she was asked to fetch while out working in the fields. Days later, the women complained that she made derogatory remarks about the Prophet Mohammed (pbuh).

Aasia was set upon by a mob, arrested by police and sentenced on November 8. Rights activists and pressure groups say it is the first time that a woman had been sentenced to hang in Pakistan for blasphemy. Most of those convicted of blasphemy have their sentences overturned or commuted on appeal through the courts. Only around three per cent of Pakistan’s population of 167 million are estimated to be non-Muslim.

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PML-N condemns 'surrendering land to foreign troops'

Nisar says presence of foreign troops on the country's land are a breach of its sovereignty.

ISLAMABAD:?Chaudhry Nisar, leader of the opposition, said the PML-N finds reports of the presence of foreign troops around Quetta to be highly alarming.

Talking to the media outside the Parliament House in Islamabad, Nisar said the government should come clean regarding the situation in Balochistan.

He said the PML-N condemns the act of surrendering the country’s land to foreign troops. He said such acts are against Pakistan’s sovereignty and will not be tolerated.?He said his party has submitted an adjournment motion in the parliament in this regard.

Nisar also touched upon the incident of missing prisoners from Adiala Jail, saying that nobody is above the law and intelligence agencies are bound to abide by the constitution.

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Senate approves RGST Bill

Senators continue to oppose the RGST bill.

ISLAMABAD:?The Senate, under the chairmanship of Farooq H Naik, approved the recommendations on the Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST) bill on Friday.

Proposals?by the Standing Committee on Finance regarding?the RGST?were presented in the Senate session.?A report with the recommendations has been forwarded to the National Assembly for consideration.

The government ?faced tough opposition on the RGST bill by opposition parties as?debate on the bill continued in the Senate?on Friday.

The Federal Law Minister, Babar Awan, while talking to the media outside the Senate, presented the report, which includes the 15 recommendations by the Senate.

Awan said that everyone was given a fair chance in the proceedings while also criticizing the Senator Ahmed Ali, the chairman of the Senate’s the standing committee on finance, who had had earlier signed the bill but opposed it in the Senate session today.

Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh said that it was a historic step by the Senate to accept the bill, saying it would finally change the 20-year old system of taxes.

Shaikh said the parliament will now have to make tough decisions. He also thanked the finance committee, who he said had worked tirelessly for the past four days.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) senator Ishaq Dar said that had the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) not walked out of the session, the opposition could have blocked the recommendations from being approved.

According to Express 24/7 correspondent, Sabur Ali Syed, 11 senators belonging to JUI also submitted a resolution in the house saying that they would not support the bill because they believe it will add to the miseries of the common man.

Waseem Sajjad, the leader of the opposition in the house, tabled a resolution saying that the imposition of the RGST bill is going to hurt the interest of the common people and that the Senate should not pass any recommendations in favour of this bill, reported Sabur.

The RGST bill has been facing stiff opposition from senators over the past week. Chairman Senate Farooq H Naik however, had earlier said the House could make recommendations on the finance bill but its approval is not needed for passage of a bill.

Read the complete RGST bill here.

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Apple’s Success With iPad Creates Giant Sucking Sound For Mac Notebook Pricing

iPad stands accused of cannibalism

The average price of Apple’s Macintosh (Mac) notebook has declined from an estimated $1,460 in 2007 to around $1,230 in 2010, ^[] led by greater demand for notebooks over desktops causing PC manufacturers like Apple, Hewlett-Packard and Dell to increase production and lower prices in order to boost sales.

Despite the weak economy, Apple’s notebook prices have remained more resilient than competitors while the increased market share suggests it has more room to use pricing to stimulate demand. However, Apple’s own iPad gives customers another choice for a mobile computing device without leaving the Apple family of products, and this fact combined with hyper competition in the notebook market, might add downward pricing pressure for Mac’s notebook line.

We estimate that notebook sales make up 8% of our current Trefis price estimate of $418 for Apple’s stock, which is about 36% above the current market price of $307.

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iPad Weighing on Mac Prices

There is a growing consensus that tablets like the iPad are cannibalizing sales of notebooks. In a September 2010 article in Wall Street Journal, Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn said that internal estimates showed that the iPad had cannibalized sales from laptop PCs, especially netbooks, by as much as 50%. Most data include netbooks as a subset of the overall notebook market.

Another article in Fortune, sourcing Morgan Stanley/NPD research, states that tablet cannibalization is one of the key factors responsible for the negative growth in the notebook market in the past eight months. ^[]

In a previous article dated April 3, we explored the implications of the iPad on Mac sales and suggested that since a significant portion of Mac notebook buyers were primarily content consumers rather than content creators, Mac notebook cannibalization from the iPad could be significant.

In hindsight, the iPad created a new market for tablets which to this point has not affected Mac notebooks noticeably. It also took share from the netbook market where Apple was not active.

Pricing vs. Market Share

Apple was forced to cut prices of its MacBook Pro and MacBook Air products by between 6% and 28% last year, which is uncustomary for the company. ^[] Its price declines are still less than those for competitors HP and Dell.

Going forward, we believe that the iPad’s pricing in the market place is below that of notebooks and above that of netbooks. This could make it hard for Apple to raise (or maintain) prices on its notebooks in the future as some customers will view the iPad as a cheaper substitute without having to leave the Apple family – or conversely a cheaper way to join the Apple family without buying a notebook.

We expect modest price cuts could play a role in increasing Apple’s notebook market share from an estimated 6.5% in 2010 to 10.5% in 2017. (chart above)

The Trefis community expects Mac notebook pricing to decrease from $1,200 in 2011 to $995 by 2017, compared to the Trefis baseline estimate of a decrease from $1,170 to $860 during the same period suggesting slight upside from our price estimate.

Our complete analysis for Apple’s stock is here.

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Cisco Surfs To $24 Riding Digital Content Tsunami

John Chambers is down but not out

Following Cisco’s earnings release, traders lopped 16% off of its share price as a result of lower revenue guidance going into next year. Cisco competes with Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent and Tellabs in the routing and switching businesses.

The plunge led to fears that the tech sector is stalling, which we feel is unjustified at this point though we acknowledge the slowdown in public spending is concerning.

However we feel that major trends benefit Cisco such as the proliferation of digital content and the shift to cloud computing. We maintain our optimistic view on Cisco’s medium to long-term prospects and keep our price estimate of $24.04, which is around 25% ahead of current market levels.

Public Spending Concerns

Cisco’s drop sent off alarm bells. This was the biggest drop in Cisco’s stock since 1994 ^[] and was primarily triggered by concerns surrounding a slowdown in public spending.

Facing budget deficits, the U.S., Japan and some Central European countries have reduced their IT spending more than expected. As the economic recovery continues to be sluggish and governments are burdened with debt, Cisco will face short-term challenges in terms of its share in switches and router market.

If its market share drops from our current estimates of 72% through the forecast period to 66%, this reduces our estimate by 2.5%.

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Explosion in Consumer Digital Content

The company estimates that Internet traffic will increase more than four-fold by 2014, amounting to 64 exabytes per month ^[]. This will inevitably require better networks including routers and switches that can handle a high amount of data. These structural tailwinds support Cisco’s core switches and routers businesses which account for 27% and 15% of our price estimate respectively.

This growth is also fueled by increasing affordability of devices like computers as well as the proliferation of smartphones and tablets that promote data usage. According to Internet World Stats, the number of global internet users grew by 13% in 2009 amounting to 1.7 billion ^[].

Double-digit growth at a global scale implies the addition of close to 220 million Internet users annually. Cisco estimates that global IP traffic increased by 45% in 2009 amounting to 15 exabytes per month ^[]. Moreover, the number of online videos viewed in 2009 increased by a whopping 120% amounting to 300 billion ^[].

Growth of Cloud Computing

Cloud service models provide users or enterprises with computing infrastructure and eliminate the need for locally managed software and computing resources, such as physical storage. Some of the major cloud service providers include Amazon, SalesForce and Google.

We expect this area to grow rapidly. According to IDC, the IT cloud services market is expected to grow from an estimated $17 billion in 2009 to $44 billion in 2013 ^[]. As more computing shifts to the cloud, Cisco will benefit from requirements of handling additional IP data and security services for the cloud.

You can see the complete $24.04 Trefis price estimate for Cisco’s stock here.

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Intelligence agencies are not above the law: CJ

The Chief Justice said the intelligence agencies are not above the law.

ISLAMABAD:?While hearing the case of the 11 missing prisoners, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary said no one – including the intelligence agencies – is above the law.

During the proceedings, the Attorney General (AG) submitted the report of the intelligence agencies regarding the missing men to the court.

The Chief Justice took exception of the fact that the report was neither signed by Director General (DG) Intelligence Bureau nor DG Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

To this, the Attorney General raised a procedural objection that since the intelligence agencies function under the Defence Ministry, a notice should be given to the defence secretary. The objection was later withdrawn by the Attorney General.

Justice Ramday at this point remarked that the AG was trying to pit two institutions of the state, the intelligence agencies and the court, against each other

The hearing of the case has been adjourned till December 13.

The 11 men, who disappeared from the jail in Rawalpindi, were acquitted by an anti-terrorism court (ATC) for want of evidence. They had been picked up for their suspected involvement in terrorist acts, including the GHQ attack and the assassination attempt on former president Pervez Musharraf.

The relatives of the 11 missing men claim that they were picked up from the premises of the Adiyala Jail by intelligence agencies, but the intelligence agencies have been denying this.

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Shoes Are Kicking But Nike Should Get Knocked Back Below $70

Nike can soar. It may be coming back down

Nike competes with Sketchers, Adidas AG, Steven Madden and K-Swiss in the global footwear market.

Widening product lines coupled with strong marketing and innovation has contributed to Nike’s rising market share in the global footwear market. Its share has increased from almost 14% in 2006 to around 16% in 2009, ^[] and we expect this trend to continue over our forecast period.

According to our estimates, Nike branded footwear constitutes around 44% of Nike’s stock; hence the stock is significantly impacted by the global footwear market share. If Nike’s footwear share reaches 21% in coming years instead of the 19% that we currently forecast, this could create an upside of 5% to our current price forecast.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $68.63 for Nike’s stock, which is about 20% below the current market price.

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Innovation is Key for Nike

Nike is known for its innovative products. It spends a significant amount of time on shoe development and design. It also collaborates with other companies in order to design new products. For example, it worked with Apple to create a shoe with space in it to accommodate a chip that communicates data on speed and distance covered to the runner’s iPod. This resonates with users and keeps its offerings fresh. Given the proliferation of iPods and other mobile devices that runners often use during exercise, incorporating these into Nike’s products shows an innovative product design.

Strong Marketing Campaigns

Big brands like Nike capitalize on large-scale sporting events like tennis and soccer tournaments. Effective advertising campaigns during these sporting seasons trigger market share growth.

In recent news, the National Football League announced that it’s splitting the key part of its apparel licensing between two companies: Nike and New Era. ^[] This five-year multi-million dollar deal will be effective April 2012. Nike also has a strong licensing programs with leading college and universities in the US, which popularizes its brand at the local level.

Member Forecasts

Trefis members expect Nike’s global footwear market share will increase from 17% in 2010 to 21% during the forecast period compared to the Trefis estimate of an increase from 16% in 2010 to almost 19% during the same period. See the modifiable chart above to make your own estimates.

Our complete analysis for Nike’s stock is here.

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Charts Say This Rally Is Not Yet In The Clear

Technicians have had a field day

Financial pundits are explaining the market’s recent gyrations as reactions to daily news and economic reports. Tuesday’s big decline was supposedly due to uncertainties created by the Irish debt crisis, North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island, and the 2.2% decline in existing home sales, while the market ignored the positive upward revision of third quarter GDP.

Wednesday’s big rally was then supposedly due to the decline in unemployment claims, and that incomes rose 0.5% last month, slightly better than the 0.4% economists expected. In responding positively to those relatively minor reports, the market rally supposedly ignored the big plunge in durable goods orders in October (the largest monthly decline since January, 2009), that new home sales fell 8.1% in October, worse than forecasts, while home prices declined further, and the inventory of unsold homes rose more than expected.

It’s much more likely that the market’s gyrations are technical in nature, caused by traders watching and reacting to the market’s struggle with short-term support and resistance levels.

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After initially spiking up in reaction to the Fed’s QE2 decision, the market topped out at least temporarily two weeks ago. The Dow subsequently broke below the previous support at its 21-day moving average for the first time since the big rally began in early September. That no doubt got the attention of traders.

The Dow then rallied back up to its 21-day m.a. last week, where the question was whether it would break back above the m.a., and re-establish the m.a. as support for a resumption of the rally, or would find the m.a. to now be overhead resistance with the correction likely to continue. The question remains unanswered. In Tuesday’s triple-digit decline the Dow clearly found the moving average to be overhead resistance.

However, the Dow’s plunge Tuesday halted at the potential support at 11,000, as did its triple-digit decline a few days ago. So a lower high was created by the resistance at the moving average, but not a lower low on the pullback.? On Wednesday it rallied off that potential support back up almost to its 21-day m.a. again. So the jury is still out on the market’s short-term prospects.

Meanwhile, global markets are just as interesting. I don’t have space to show individual markets, some of which are looking positive, some negative. The next chart shows that global markets as a whole topped out with the U.S. market a couple of weeks ago (leaving a potential double-top in place). And after finding their 21-day moving averages to be overhead resistance, declined to a lower low last night and yesterday. That has the chart in a potential negative pattern of lower highs on rally attempts, and lower lows on the pullbacks from those rallies.

Of course it’s the longer-term outlook that is of more importance, but the current short-term situation is certainly interesting, and its outcome may be important to that longer-term outlook.

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