Intel reports blame Pakistan for limited success in Afghan war: NYT

Two new classified intelligence reports on the war in Afghanistan say there is a limited chance of success unless Pakistan hunts down insurgents operating from havens on its Afghan border. PHOTO: FILE/REUTERS

WASHINGTON:?Two new classified intelligence reports on the war in Afghanistan say there is a limited chance of success unless Pakistan hunts down insurgents operating from havens on its Afghan border, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.

The National Intelligence Estimates offer a more negative assessment than a review of the US war strategy that the Obama administration is set to unveil on Thursday.

The intelligence reports – one on Afghanistan and one on Pakistan – say that although there has been progress in the war, Pakistan’s unwillingness to shut down militant sanctuaries in its tribal region remains a serious obstacle, The New York Times reported.

The White House said on Tuesday that the war strategy review has determined that a troop increase led to important progress in the nine-year-old war which may permit some US soldiers to withdraw from Afghanistan next July.

Obama ordered 30,000 more US troops to Afghanistan a year ago with the goal of turning the tide against a resurgent Taliban.

The Times said the findings of the intelligence community were provided to some members of the Senate and House Intelligence Committees last week and were described by a number of US officials who read the executive summaries.

US military commanders and senior Pentagon officials have already criticised the reports as out of date and written by Washington analysts who have spent little time in the war zone, the newspaper said.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you're reading it on someone else's site, please read our FAQ page at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Five Filters featured site: So, Why is Wikileaks a Good Thing Again?.

View the original article here

Apple’s Success With iPad Creates Giant Sucking Sound For Mac Notebook Pricing

iPad stands accused of cannibalism

The average price of Apple’s Macintosh (Mac) notebook has declined from an estimated $1,460 in 2007 to around $1,230 in 2010, ^[] led by greater demand for notebooks over desktops causing PC manufacturers like Apple, Hewlett-Packard and Dell to increase production and lower prices in order to boost sales.

Despite the weak economy, Apple’s notebook prices have remained more resilient than competitors while the increased market share suggests it has more room to use pricing to stimulate demand. However, Apple’s own iPad gives customers another choice for a mobile computing device without leaving the Apple family of products, and this fact combined with hyper competition in the notebook market, might add downward pricing pressure for Mac’s notebook line.

We estimate that notebook sales make up 8% of our current Trefis price estimate of $418 for Apple’s stock, which is about 36% above the current market price of $307.

Special Offer: CREE is back to $65. Paul McWilliams told his readers to buy it at $17. Buy more now or sell the rally? Click here for instant access to analysis and recommended trades in Next Inning Technology Research.

iPad Weighing on Mac Prices

There is a growing consensus that tablets like the iPad are cannibalizing sales of notebooks. In a September 2010 article in Wall Street Journal, Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn said that internal estimates showed that the iPad had cannibalized sales from laptop PCs, especially netbooks, by as much as 50%. Most data include netbooks as a subset of the overall notebook market.

Another article in Fortune, sourcing Morgan Stanley/NPD research, states that tablet cannibalization is one of the key factors responsible for the negative growth in the notebook market in the past eight months. ^[]

In a previous article dated April 3, we explored the implications of the iPad on Mac sales and suggested that since a significant portion of Mac notebook buyers were primarily content consumers rather than content creators, Mac notebook cannibalization from the iPad could be significant.

In hindsight, the iPad created a new market for tablets which to this point has not affected Mac notebooks noticeably. It also took share from the netbook market where Apple was not active.

Pricing vs. Market Share

Apple was forced to cut prices of its MacBook Pro and MacBook Air products by between 6% and 28% last year, which is uncustomary for the company. ^[] Its price declines are still less than those for competitors HP and Dell.

Going forward, we believe that the iPad’s pricing in the market place is below that of notebooks and above that of netbooks. This could make it hard for Apple to raise (or maintain) prices on its notebooks in the future as some customers will view the iPad as a cheaper substitute without having to leave the Apple family – or conversely a cheaper way to join the Apple family without buying a notebook.

We expect modest price cuts could play a role in increasing Apple’s notebook market share from an estimated 6.5% in 2010 to 10.5% in 2017. (chart above)

The Trefis community expects Mac notebook pricing to decrease from $1,200 in 2011 to $995 by 2017, compared to the Trefis baseline estimate of a decrease from $1,170 to $860 during the same period suggesting slight upside from our price estimate.

Our complete analysis for Apple’s stock is here.

Like our charts? Embed them in your own posts using the Trefis Wordpress Plugin.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you're reading it on someone else's site, please read our FAQ page at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Five Filters featured article: Beyond Hiroshima - The Non-Reporting of Falluja's Cancer Catastrophe.

View the original article here