Saturday, December 25, 2010

Looks Like John Q. Public May Not Have Picked A Swell Time To Jump Into Stocks, Dump Bonds

NEW YORK - MAY 17: People pose for pictures b...

The public loves stocks again. Time to short?

According to the latest report from the Investment Company Institute, investors bailed out of bond mutual funds last week for the third straight week, and the exodus accelerated to the fastest pace since October, 2008.

It’s interesting that the bailout in October, 2008 took place just before the big spike up in bond prices that began in November, 2008.

The bail-out of the last few weeks comes after bonds have already tumbled sharply, a decline that began after investors piled into bonds and bond funds at a near record pace for most of this year.

Are they selling near a low again?

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We’ve been on a sell signal for bonds at Street Smart Report and have seen our downside holding in the ‘inverse’ bond etf TBF (designed to go up when bonds go down) gain as much as the stock market over the last three months. The 30-year bond has declined 10.3% since October 1, while the S&P 500 has gained exactly the same amount.

122310a

However, while we’re still on the sell signal for bonds, bonds have become oversold on the charts, possibly nearing a buying opportunity.

Meanwhile, the outflow of money from U.S. stock mutual funds that took place at a startling pace last year and most of this year, even as the impressive new bull market in stocks began and continued, did not reverse to inflow until October. And investor sentiment has spiked up to high levels of bullishness usually associated with market tops.

122310b

While bonds are becoming oversold and possibly nearing a buy signal, are stocks overbought and nearing a sell signal?

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Friday, December 24, 2010

Wal-Mart Stays Stingy On Discounting, Still On Target For $66 Stock Price

OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 08: The Wal-Mart logo i...

Prices are low but no lower than usual

Wal-Mart seems to be adopting a mixed approach to drive holiday sales instead of just purely discounting all the products to drive store volumes.

While this signals the retailer’s increased confidence for holiday shopping, it also represents a broader development that the U.S. consumer might finally be growing more confident with regard to economic outlook. ?This should also benefit other retailers that compete with Wal-Mart like Costco, Target and Sears.

This bodes well for Wal-Mart as we maintain our bullish take on the company driven by expected improvements in sales metrics (like revenue per square foot) and stable profit margins. Our price estimate for Wal-Mart’s stock currently stands at $65.42, which is about 22% above current market price.

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Retracting Some Initial Price Rollbacks ?

While the economic growth has been sluggish in 2010, there were indications that the fourth quarter might be stronger than expected from early reports. October data suggested that due to payroll increases and improved employment, the 4th quarter would be strong. []

Then November retail sales data released last week prompted economists to boost their forecasts even further. []With confirmation that consumers are willing to spend this holiday, Wal-Mart decided to ease up on its initial price rollbacks on many items. We believe this will help support margins as the retailer can drive sales without heavily discounting.

Smartphone Discounts Could be Strategic

Wal-Mart is maintaining its discounts on smartphones like Apple’s iPhone 4. [] Given that smartphones are some of the hottest selling items this holiday season and Wal-Mart wants to both attract customers and improve its sales metrics like revenue per square foot, this strategy makes sense. The retailer is increasingly moving into selling consumer electronics – a topic we discussed in a recent article Will Best Buy?s Earnings Miss Weigh on Wal-Mart? – and is one of the key beneficiaries of Best Buy’s recent stumbles in its holiday sales push.

As we enter the home stretch on holiday sales, we expect to see some strong numbers out of Wal-Mart.

You can see the complete $65.42 Trefis price estimate for Wal-Mart’s stock here.

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2010: Karachi's most violent year since 1995

The rise in killings, apart from crime, is also attributed to target killings. PHOTO: FILE/AFP

KARACHI:?The year 2010 has been one of the most violent years in Karachi’s history, as killings in the city have reached their highest since 1995, when 1,742 people were killed.

According to numbers released by the Citizens Police Liason Committee (CPLC), 1,247 people have been killed in the metropolitan hub this year, as compared to 801 last year.

August witnessed the highest death toll of the year with 162?people murdered, while June saw the second highest death toll of 135 people being killed in various localities of the city.

The rise in killings, apart from crime, is also attributed to target killings.

The assassination of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) MPA Raza Haider and other political, ethnic and sectarian killings all contributed to the high number of murders in the city this year.

Spates of target killings also affected businesses as commercial areas would shut down because of protests and riots.

Kidnappings are also at their highest since the last 20 years with 104 this year so far.

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'Jundullah is active on Pak-Iran border'

Malik says Pakistan and Iran will form a joint strategy against Jundullah. PHOTO: EPA

ISTANBUL:?Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Friday said that Jundullah, the Iranian militant organisation responsible to the Chabahar bombings, is active on the Pak-Iran border and both countries will form a joint strategy against the terrorist outfit.

Malik said that Pakistan is willing to act against those responsible for the suicide blasts in Iran, if provided with solid evidence.

He was speaking to the media in Istanbul.

Malik said Pakistan would not allow anyone to use its land against another country.

President Asif Ali Zardari has also discussed the situation with his Iranian counterpart and has assured him of every kind of support. Earlier this week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has called President Zardari asking him to arrest and hand over “known terrorists” to Iran.

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11 soldiers, 24 militants killed in Mohmand

Security forces continue operations against militants in northwest regions of the country. PHOTO: EPA

Security forces on Friday killed 24 militants ?as they attempted to attack?checkposts in Mohmand Agency, officials have said. Eleven soldiers were killed in the clashes, officials said.

“About 150 Taliban militants attacked five Frontier Corps checkposts in Baidnami village near the border with Afghanistan,” a senior security official told AFP. “The attack was repulsed leaving 24 militants dead, and three of our men embraced martyrdom,”

Local administration officials in Ghalanai, the main town of Mohmand tribal district, and the paramilitary force confirmed the attack and casualties.

“Militants ran away, leaving behind dead bodies. Twelve soldiers were wounded in the fighting,” the official said.

Bodies of 10 militants have also been taken into custody, while gunship helicopters are?hovering in the area.

In a telephone call to AFP Taliban spokesman for Mohmand district Sajjad Mohmand claimed his fighters had killed 12 soldiers and captured a check post.

“We have killed 12 soldiers and occupied a check post,” Mohmand said.

He also said two paramilitary soldiers had been captured but security officials rejected the claim, saying no one was missing.

Mohmand district has seen much violence in the recent past. ?On December 6, twin suicide bombings killed 43 people in Ghalanai, about 175 kilometres (110 miles) northwest of Islamabad.

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Costco Just Can’t Beat Best Buy In Electronics, Stock Price Headed South

Costco

Fighting an uphill battle in electronics

Recent reports suggest that retailers like Wal-Mart and Amazon are taking some of Best Buy’s consumer electronics market share with the help of their promotional discounts and offers as well as effective online sales strategies. For additional details you can see our recently published article Can Best Buy Correct Product Missteps?

Here we take one step further and examine whether warehouse clubs like Costco could also ride this bandwagon and grab market share in consumer electronics.

Costco traditionally competes with warehouse club operators including BJ’s Wholesale Club and Sam’s Club, in addition to large retailers. We maintain a price estimate of $49.76 for Costco, well below current market value.

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Costco Can Leverage Discounting Power

Costco offers bulk purchase of a variety of heavily discounted merchandise as well as a limited selections of branded goods. The retailer is able to provide deep discounts due to higher product turn-over from bulk buyers and business customers. Similar to Wal-Mart and Amazon, Costco could also leverage its discounting power to lure potential electronics customers that might otherwise go to specialty retailers like Best Buy.

Best Buy gains its edge by providing trusted service support and frequently being the first to display the latest electronics and gadgets. However, recent reports indicate that consumers might be tentative to adopt some of the latest technologies, instead opting for more established products. For example, consumers are commonly choosing established flat panel TV’s over the new 3D-TV technology. This trend could open a window of opportunity for Cotsco, as the company is able to utilize its personalized discount scheme to drive sales (particularly during holiday shopping). (See our previous article on Sam’s Club)

Stock Impact from Improved Revenue per Square Foot

Costco’s revenue per square foot stands much higher than that of Wal-Mart, despite selling similar merchandise. However, Costco still lags slightly behind Best Buy on this metric. We estimate that average revenue per square foot for Costco stood at around $814 for 2009 compared to $908 for Best Buy’s US stores.

If Costco is able to gain electronics share from Best Buy, sparking RPSF upside closer to the retailer’s levels, what impact might it have on Costco’s stock? We estimate that this scenario could generate 6% upside to our Costco price estimate, which at $49.76 remains well below market value.

Drag the trend-line in the chart below to see the impact of various US revenue per square foot trends on Costco’s stock value. We estimate that Costco generates roughly 43% of its stock value from merchandise sales in the US, with another 19% added by international merchandise.

But Costco Faces an Uphill Battle for Market Share

However, this potential upside is mitigated by the nature of Costco’s customer base, as well as its limited brand selection. Customers that are not currently Costco members might choose Wal-Mart when looking for a one-time discount, rather than bear membership fees. Additionally, many of Costco’s customers are small business owners that might not be inclined to purchase new gadgets. Hence the possibility exists that the electronics market share opportunity could quickly be gobbled up by Wal-Mart and Amazon, who maintain a clear head start over Costco. In order to successfully grab market share, Costco must entice both its existing customer base as well as customers who might initially be looking for a deep discount on a one-time purchase.

You can see the complete $49.76 Trefis price estimate for Costco’s stock here.

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Thursday, December 23, 2010

K-P land scam: Peshawar high court petitioned to cancel lease

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ameer Haider Khan Hoti had cancelled the allotment of 170 acres of land worth Rs5 billion following news of the scam. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD:?A legal battle has started between the federal and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government in the scam involving the lease of 170 acres of land which was originally marked to the Pakistan Oilseed Development Board (PODB).

The Peshawar High Court is taking up a petition filed by the PODB, a department of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, on Wednesday (today), requesting the cancellation of the allotment in the name of Javed Iqbal of Rawalpindi. The court has further been petitioned to direct the K-P government to hand over the land back to the PODB.

The agriculture ministry moved the Peshawar High Court to reclaim ownership of its olive research station established in 1998 on 170 acres with the help of technology and support from Turkey and Italy.

PODB has hired advocate Mohammad Asif to fight the case. The K-P government had already cancelled the land allotment in the name of Javed Iqbal after the scam was published in The Express Tribune last week. However, K-P Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain has said that the multi-billion-rupee olive research station will be auctioned.

The developed olive research farm was secretly leased out by the K-P government on December 3, to one Javed Iqbal, said to be a front man of a top Awami National Party leader, in the name of a bogus construction company of Rawalpindi for twenty years. Police was used to forcibly get the land vacated.

The National Accountability Bureau has already launched an investigation into the Rs5 billion land scam.

The Rawalpindi address given in the lease documents by Javed Iqbal turned out to be fake which further deepened the mystery as to who was actually behind this crime.

In its petition, the PODB has informed the court that it was given the land by Auqaf on lease in 1998.

The land at the time of possession was barren and rain-fed. PODB spent millions of rupees to develop it.

The petition pleaded that the land was given to the PODB with the clear understanding that its lease would be extended.

PODB has now asked the court to direct Auqaf department to extend its lease.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 22nd, 2010.

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Wednesday, December 22, 2010

ISAF rubbishes ground raids plan

Isaf official says there is no truth in NYT report; US and Nato recognise the sovereignty of Afghanistan and Pakistan to pursue terrorists operating in their respective borders. PHOTO: REUTERS

ISLAMABAD/KABUL:?A senior official for the Nato-led forces in Afghanistan on Tuesday strongly denied a report in The New York Times that the United States was considering expanding special forces raids into Pakistan. Relations between the United States and Pakistan are already strained despite months of strategic dialogue aimed at upgrading the partnership and billions of dollars in aid for development and relief from devastating floods.

Analysts said Washington might be using the suggestion to coax Pakistan into tougher action against Taliban militants in areas bordering Afghanistan. But any serious move to expand ground raids would boost tension, perhaps intolerably, and could be considered a “red line” for Pakistani authorities.

“There is absolutely no truth to reporting in The New York Times that US forces are planning to conduct ground operations into Pakistan,” ?Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, Deputy Chief of Staff for Communication for the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf), said in a statement from Kabul.

He said US troops and their Nato-led allies, along with Afghan forces, had “developed a strong working relationship with the Pakistan military to address shared security issues. “This coordination recognises the sovereignty of Afghanistan and Pakistan to pursue insurgents and terrorists operating in their respective border areas.”

Late on Monday, the New York Times reported that senior US military commanders in Afghanistan were seeking to expand Special Operations ground raids into Pakistan. The proposal, as reported, would escalate military activities inside Pakistan and reflects growing frustration with Islamabad’s efforts to root out militants in Pakistani tribal areas, the newspaper said, citing US officials in Washington and Afghanistan.

Pakistani authorities made clear the issue was hypersensitive in what is already a shaky alliance in the US-led war on militancy.”Pakistani forces are capable of handling the militant threat within our borders and no foreign forces are allowed or required to operate inside our sovereign territory,” Islamabad’s ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani said, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan.

“We work with our allies, especially the US, and appreciate their material support but we will not accept foreign troops on our soil — a position that is well known.”

“This is a deliberate leak,” Ahmed Rashid, a journalist and expert on the Afghan Taliban, told Reuters. “The Americans have been talking about this for the last six months.” Pakistanis, he said, could only react with rage to the possibility of drone strikes on major cities, like Quetta. But, he added, the United States is more serious this time because if after winter the Taliban can maintain the intensity of their attacks, this could jeopardise the success of President Barack Obama’s plan to begin a phased withdrawal in mid-2011.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 22nd, 2010.

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Elvis, Nixon And The New Normal

Richard M. Nixon and Elvis Presley at the Whit...

It was 40 years ago today

On this date forty years ago, December 21, 1970, in a bizarre meeting of pop culture icons, Elvis Presley met with President Richard Nixon after ‘The King’ appeared unannounced at the gates of the Executive Mansion and handed the guard on duty a 5-page handwritten letter requesting a meeting with the president.

Elvis presented the president with a commemorative Colt .45 pistol during the meeting for some reason, and according to notes of the meeting taken by Nixon aide Egil Krogh, Presley told the president that he thought the Beatles were a “real force for anti-American spirit” (not to mention having put a serious dent in the King’s record sales. He was probably resentful of their role in his banishment to Vegas).

Elvis also disclosed that he had been studying “Communist brainwashing and the drug culture for over ten years.” At least the second claim was not hyperbole!? After the meeting, Elvis got what he was after: a ceremonial appointment as a “Federal Agent at Large” in the war against drugs. I wonder if the badge helped him fill all of the prescriptions he obtained while under the care of the acquiescent Dr. Nick.

Elvis was such an important cultural figure in American history that two versions of him co-exist in the pantheon of Pop Culture Gods. The one we all prefer to remember is the cool, leather-clad rockabilly version that dramatically burst upon the world stage in the 1950s, but the overweight, caped Vegas version still has a hold on the popular imagination. Together they symbolize a peculiarly American version of a Shakespearian tragedy.

While it will be sometime before we know if the upcoming year is filled with scintillating versions of “Hound Dog” or turgid versions of “In The Ghetto,” we can at least run with the metaphor for the rest of this blog entry.

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After a decade in which a debt-fueled spree caused the American economy to become as bloated as the late-period Vegas Elvis after a night spent bingeing on amphetamines and fried peanut butter and banana sandwiches, it should have come to little surprise to any of us that the post-housing bubble crash was so painful to endure. But now American corporations have become as lean as the leather-clad Elvis seen during his famous televised “comeback” special in 1968 and investors can’t help falling in love with the thought that the so-called “new normal” may not be quite as depressing as some of the popularizers of that phrase have been predicting.

Reluctant buyers appear to have decided that it’s now or never and have been jumping into the market in the anticipation that improving economic conditions will result in an earnings bonanza for said corporations.

Many suspicious minds, scarred by the experiences of the past two years are having a hard time buying into the notion of a “melt-up” in the market, but the indexes are currently pressing up against a number of resistance levels and an upside breakout could cause the shorts to check into Heartbreak Hotel. The recovery of the service sector, currently said to make up nearly two-thirds of the American economy, will be the key to improved GDP growth and investors would be wise to key an eye on related metrics.

Services (think Elvis’coterie of assorted “hangers-on”) tend to recover later in the cycle than durable goods and if the pattern plays out as it has in past recoveries, we could be on a verge of another leg up. Anecdotal evidence supports the thesis that he wealth effect caused by a rising market is encouraging consumers to spend during this holiday season. Can it be long before businesses large and small begin to reap the benefits of increased consumer spending? Judging by the increasing number of prognosticators who are predicting a strong rally, we all could be headed for Graceland in 2011.

Thank you very much.

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Lowe’s Thrives By Wringing Profits From Appliances Sales

Lowes Home improvment store.

Making some money on appliances

Lowe’s is the world’s second largest retailer of home improvement products after Home Depot. Through its more than 1,700 stores spread across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, Lowe’s offers a wide range of home improvement products and installation services to individual home owners as well as professional builders.

We estimate that Lowe’s plumbing, electrical, & kitchen segment is the single largest value driver of the company’s operations, generating close to 33% of our estimated $25.87 stock value for Lowe’s, which is in line with the current market price.

Appliances Picking Up

Lowe’s reported its 3Q FY10 results showed positive results with YOY sales for the quarter increasing by nearly 2%. For the first nine months of fiscal 2010, Lowe’s reported sales increase of 3.5%. In addition to an increasing trend of do-it-yourself for tackling home improvements rather than hiring someone, an increase in market share in appliances, has helped to boost Lowe’s sales this year. The appliances segment is a part of our plumbing, electrical, & kitchen division for Lowe’s.

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Sears has been losing market share to rivals Lowe’s and Home Depot in the appliance segment which includes items such as refrigerators, washer-dryers, gas ranges and ovens. In addition to increasing its product range and opening more stores, Lowe’s gains leverage in attracting shoppers, especially female customers, as its stores are brighter, cleaner and better maintained.

Last year, Lowe’s share of the US appliance market rose nearly 4 percent to $4.54 billion, or about a fifth of the total, according to This Week in Consumer Electronics.

Currently, we estimate Lowe’s North America Plumbing, Electrical, & Kitchen Market Share to increase from 17% in 2009 to almost 19% in 2017.

…Focusing on Margins

With consumer spending and the housing market being slow to pick up, another initiative taken by Lowe’s is to improve margins. Lowe’s executives said they will focus on margin growth initiatives like offering more private label goods and making structural changes to become more competitive on prices on a local level. The company also has installed a new inventory management software to help individual stores keep better track of prices.

Plumbing, Electrical & Kitchen profit margins (EBITDA margin) declined from below 14% in 2006 to around 10% in 2009 due to increasing expenses and pricing pressure to maintain market share during the economic slowdown. We believe that as Lowe’s enters 2011 with consumers spending cautiously, the pricing war among home improvement retailers could put downward pressure on its margins. We forecast the decline in Lowe’s EBITDA margin to continue, with the Plumbing, Electrical & Kitchen EBITDA falling to about 9% by 2017.

However, the above short term trends (Lowe’s gaining market share in the appliance segment and its margin growth initiative) have the potential to help Lowe’s gain more market share as well as sustain margins for its Plumbing, Electrical, & Kitchen division in the long run.

If the Lowe’s North America Plumbing, Electrical, & Kitchen Market Share increases to around 20% by 2017, and the Plumbing, Electrical & Kitchen EBITDA Profit Margin stays at around 10% by 2017, there can be a 7-8% upside to our estimate for its stock price.

See our full analysis for Lowe’s here.

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Too Much Ad Spending By Colgate-Palmolive Could Knock 20% Off Stock Price

Pastajabon

To spend or not to spend?

It comes as no surprise that Colgate-Palmolive Co. continues to be outspent in media and advertising by other big players such as Procter & Gamble, L’Oreal and Unilever and now also the increasingly aggressive GlaxoSmithKline.

Despite this, Colgate-Palmolive has managed to maintain and even gain market share in the past, which is no small feat given that for consumer products, advertising is a crucial business driver and constitutes a healthy share of operating costs. What does catch our attention though is, unlike before, there has been significant drop in Colgate’s market shares across all major products segments-toothpastes and toothbrushes, deodorants, dish soaps, body washes and pet foods.

While this does fuel speculations of an impending rise in media spending to match the competition, we’re not totally convinced that this would happen and even if it does, that it would have the impact that’s expected out of it. Here’s our take on it.

If Colgate-Palmolive were to ramp up advertising and media spending…

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Colgate spends close to 11% of its sales on advertising, which is in line with its peers globally. Why then this hue and cry over media under-spend? To begin with, media spending is thinly spread over 200 markets across the globe leaving the U.S. with disproportionately low ad-spend relative to competitors, which is spread over several categories ranging from oral care to pet food. Colgate gets outspent in each of these category.

In Deodorants & Body Washes, which as per our estimates constitute close to 25% of Colgate’s stock value, Colgate spent a total of $9 million on Softsoap, Irish Spring and Speedstick while P&G spent over $82 million (over 9X) on Old Spice and Secret. Compare this with Unilever, which spent $148 million on Dove alone and close to $267 million on Axe and Degree.

Even in Oral Care, which is the leading product segment within Colgate contributing over 44% of its stock value as per our estimates, Colgate’s advertising was exceeded by over 35% by P&G’s Crest toothpaste. P&G, which competes with Colgate in all product segments exceeds Colgate’s advertising spending by over 2.5X.

Would simply increasing advertising be the solution?

While increasing advertising is bound to have a positive impact on sales would the incremental sales match up to the increase in expenses incurred on media and advertising?

P&G for instance has long dominated the personal care industry in terms of advertising and competing with the likes of P&G solely on advertising would unnecessarily strain the operating margins. Also, competing on advertising spending in not a one-time cost but if Colgate chooses to play on this turf, it would need to sustain the heightened level of media and advertising spends in the future. Notwithstanding, the current gap that exists in advertising levels between Colgate-Palmolive and others is too wide to be bridged easily in the short-term.

If however Colgate were to scale up advertising to arrest the drop in market shares in Oral Care and Shampoos, Soaps & Deodorants segments, the two largest products segments within Colgate Palmolive, we would expect the profit margins (EBITDA margins) to decline sharply in the short term to historical lows of close under 25% and to remain flat thereafter, leading to a potential 20% downside to our current Trefis price estimate of Colgate-Palmolive’s stock.

While media and advertising can be reasonably assumed to be significant causes for a drop in Colgate Palmolive’s market shares, we believe simply ramping up the advertising spending doesn’t provide the solution.

See our full estimates for Colgate-Palmolive here

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19th constitutional amendment: All set to amend the constitution, again

Senator Rabbani said the consensus on the amendments shows democracy is gaining strength in Pakistan. PHOTO: FILE/APP

ISLAMABAD:?

The National Assembly on Wednesday unanimously approved the 19th amendment bill.

The bill has now been to the upper house for approval.

Earlier, the Federal Cabinet had approved the draft of the 19th amendment bill, which was then tabled in parliament by Senator Raza Rabbani.

The Constitutional Reforms Committee had unanimously crafted the bill, in the light of directions by the Supreme Court. Amendments had been recommended in six clauses of the constitution.

Updated from print version (below)

19th constitutional amendment: All set to amend the constitution, again

The top political leadership on Tuesday dispelled fears of confrontation among state institutions as the lower house of parliament prepared to amend the constitution for a second time in a year, this time in compliance with a Supreme Court order.

“All those who were predicting confrontation among state institutions will be disappointed today,” Senator Raza Rabbani told lawmakers after tabling in the National Assembly a report on the 19th constitutional amendment.

The fresh amendment seeks changes in a two-pronged mechanism for appointing judges in the superior courts in light of proposals forwarded to the parliament by the Supreme Court in its order.

The apex court’s order came in response to several legal challenges to the judges’ appointment mechanism envisaged in Article 175A of the 18th amendment, approved by parliament earlier this year.

The amendment is likely to be passed by the National Assembly and the Senate in their current sessions after a ceremonial approval by the federal cabinet today (Wednesday).

According to the new mechanism, the prime minister would also have a ‘symbolic’ say in the procedure. A parliamentary committee to finalise nominations by a judicial commission would have to cite reasons for rejections.

Furnished by a 26-member all-party parliamentary committee, the amendment has suggested changes to Article 175A of the constitution that deals with the appointment of judges in the superior courts.

The report by the Parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Reforms (PCCR) has increased the number of members of a judicial commission formed for appointments under the 18th amendment.

The commission to be headed by the chief justice would now have as members three serving and one retired judge in addition to the federal law minister, the attorney general and a representative of the Pakistan Bar Council (PBC). It also specifies 15 years experience for the PBC representative.

According to the draft of the 19th amendment, the judicial commission could not resend the nomination of a person who was once rejected by the parliamentary committee. But ?in case of rejection the parliamentary committee would have to give reasons.

If a nomination is not confirmed, the judicial commission would have to send another one. In case the National Assembly is dissolved the members of the committee from the Senate would take over this job.

If confirmed, the committee would send the name of the nominee to the prime minister to be forward to the president for appointment.

More powerful than ever before

Speaking in the National Assembly, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani called the consensus on the amendment “a gift for the nation.” He said those who had been doubtful about the powers of the incumbent parliament were mistaken.

“I tell you this parliament is more powerful than all in the past, otherwise bringing two amendments to the constitution in a year would have not been possible,” he said in a brief speech after the report.

“The political leadership of the country has shown maturity by agreeing to this amendment, history will remember them,” he added.

Senator Rabbani, who heads the PCCR, said the consensus on the amendments shows democracy is gaining strength in Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 22nd, 2010.

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Monday, December 20, 2010

Hajj scam: Malik says corruption worth 1.6m Riyals took place

The interior minister informed that corruption worth 1.6 million Saudi Riyals took place.

LAHORE:?Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Monday revealed that corruption worth 1.6 million Saudi Riyals took place in the Hajj scam.

Earlier, the FIA reportedly arrested Abdullah Khokar, brother-in-law of Hamid Saeed Kazmi, in relation to the corruption case.

Updated from print edition (below)

Hajj scam: Hamid Saeed Kazmi’s brother-in-law arrested

The Federal Investing Agency (FIA) is reported to have arrested another accused involved in the Hajj corruption scandal.

Officials said that FIA officials on Sunday arrested Abdullah Khokhar, the brother-in-law of the sacked minister for religious affairs Hamid Saeed Kazmi, on charges of receiving Rs200,000 each from a number of intending pilgrims as “advance” for “securing Hajj visas”.

The FIA Punjab Director, Zafar Ahmed Qureshi, confirmed Khokhar’s arrest and said that the accused would soon be handed over to the FIA Islamabad.

In a related development, joint secretary of the ministry of religious affairs Raja Aftabul Islam will be presented in a civil court on Monday as the court resumes the hearing in the Hajj corruption case at the expiry of the remand period, the Online news agency said. During the last hearing, the FIA had requested the court to extend the physical remand of the accused “to help with the ongoing investigation”. Civil judge Kashif Qayyum had extended the physical remand of Aftabul Islam in police custody for three more days.

It is learnt that FIA investigators had seized the accused’s personal laptop and moved to freeze his bank accounts.? The FIA will also inform the court about the progress in investigations.

A few days ago, FIA sent a team of its investigators to Saudi Arabia in a bid to approach the Saudi prince who had sent a letter to the Supreme Court which played a key role in the apex court taking action on its own.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 20th, 2010.

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'Pakistan is not seeking a permanent UNSC seat'

Qureshi says the idea of permanent membership is contrary to the spirit of democracy and accountability.

ISLAMABAD:?Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi on Monday said Pakistan is not seeking a?permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

In a written reply during a question-hour session at the?National Assembly, the foreign minister?said that?the idea of permanent membership is contrary to the spirit of democracy and accountability.

He maintained that?the restructuring of the Security Council should be?carried out?after developing a consensus among all the nine member countries.

In?a reference to India, Qureshi said some aspirants for the UNSC seat?are creating divisions among the international community.

India has recently ramped up its diplomatic efforts to get a permanent UNSC seat during restructuring of the world body.

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JUI-F to sit on opposition benches

The party chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, submitted the application for the allotment of opposition benches. PHOTO: EPA/FILE

ISLAMABAD:?Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) on Monday formally submitted an application in the speaker’s office to allow its members to sit on opposition benches in the National Assembly.

Three members of the JUI-F including Maulana Qasim, Haji Rozudin and Maulana Abdul Malik sat on treasury benches during the national assembly session. The party chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, later submitted the application for the allotment of opposition benches.

Speaking to the media outside parliament, Rehman said that two parliamentary secretaries from JUI-F, Aasia Nasir and Mufti Ajmal Khan Khattak, would also be resigning.

The JUI-F had quit the coalition on December 14 following Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s orders to sack Senator Azam Swati, the wealthiest member of the JUI-F. Swati was embroiled in a public war of words with Religious Minister Hamid Kazmi, who is faced with allegations of?corruption in Hajj arrangements. Kazmi was also sacked along with Swati.

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Best Buy Got Hammered So Is Wal-Mart Next?

OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 08: The Wal-Mart logo i...

Big miss at BBY makes you wonder

Wal-Mart is well positioned to take advantage of the improving economy sand uptick in consumer spending more than Best Buy is. Best Buy’s recent earnings release was followed by a massive 15% decline to its stock price. This was primarily a result of drop in quarterly profit due to erosion of market share and weaker demand for TV sets and entertainment products.

While Best Buy’s price fall has been accompanied by decline in stocks of GameStop and Radio Shack, Wal-Mart’s stock in fact saw slight gains. We believe that Wal-Mart is unlikely to feel the pressure of weak earnings of the electronic retail giant Best Buy.

Sentiment Gains

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Concurrent with Best Buy’s earnings release, several positive reports concerning consumer spending and business confidence were released. U.S. retail sales for November have turned out to be greater than expected and consequently economists have boosted their forecasts for overall Q4 2010 retail sales. [] Recently announced tax cuts in the U.S. are likely to aid in continuation of the momentum in 2011. Additionally, according to a recent survey the business confidence has risen significantly and business leaders are expecting increased sales, investments and hiring going forward. []

Wal-Mart’s Broad Appeal & Efforts

Since consumer spending improvement is still in its early stages, Wal-Mart’s broad assortment of products & goods as well as its appeal to budget conscious consumers bodes well for sales compared to electronics focused Best Buy. Its proposition of Every Day Low Prices seems to be drawing customers.

Additionally, Wal-Mart’s decision of aggressively pursuing electronics retailing after closure of Circuit City in 2009 seems to be paying off. The company has been able to offer several deals on electronics to grab some of the share from Best Buy. Although Best Buy’s share losses were also aggravated by its focus on mobile business over recent holiday shopping season. []

Not only this but Wal-Mart has also stepped up its online retail efforts to increase convenience for customers and drive sales during the holiday season. We recently wrote an article (Wal-Mart’s Online Push – Does it Make Sense?) where we discussed Wal-Mart’s online push and its free shipping offering. It looks like the company has taken several strategic steps to take advantage of improving economy and drive share gains. This bodes well for its revenue per square foot figures, however it could potentially impact profit margins negatively.

You can see the complete $65.42 Trefis price estimate for Wal-Mart’s stock here.

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How Badly The Durbin Amendment Might Whack JPMorgan, Bank of America

First 4 digits of a credit card

Feds crack down on plastic fees

The Federal Reserve proposed rules at its board meeting on Thursday, December 16, 2010, to limit the interchange fee that banks charge retailers when the customer uses a debit card. The rule is mandated by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

If implemented, the U.S. banking industry overall could lose $9 billion out of the near $23 billion in fees banks collect each year. []

These changes will impact those companies that collect fees from merchants such as Visa and MasterCard and pass these on to the issuing banks such as Bank of America and JP Morgan.

A typical credit card transaction involves four parties: the merchant accepting the card, the merchant’s bank, the card user and the bank that issued the card. When a credit card users make a purchase using his or her card, the merchant is charged a transaction fee by its bank that typically includes a fixed charge plus a percentage of the amount charged. The merchant’s bank then pays a portion of this transaction fee to the card issuing bank for the risk that the card user might not pay. This fee is the interchange fee.

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Bank of America

Card fees as a percentage of purchases for Bank of America have already shown a sharp decline from 3.3% in 2008 to 1.5% in 2009 due to the changes in consumption pattern because of global economic slowdown and a further decrease in interchange fee by 50% will cause card fee as a percentage of purchase to decline to about 0.7% in 2011.

This would result in about a 4 to 5% decline in the$17.10 Trefis price estimate for Bank of America.

JP Morgan

We estimate that JPMorgan’s card fees as a percentage of purchases is around 1.75% currently and JP Morgan stands to lose nearly $2 billion in revenues annually if the interchange fee is reduced by roughly 50% going forward. This would result in about a 5% decline in $48 Trefis price estimate for JP Morgan.

See our full estimates for Bank of America and estimates for JP Morgan.

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Sunday, December 19, 2010

End Of Easy Money, Beginning Of A Desolate Future

There is an old adage on Wall Street: no one rings a bell to signal a market top or bottom. Yet, I have found that bells?do ring; it’s just that few people know exactly what sound to listen for.

Perhaps the biggest and most liquid of all markets is that for U.S. government bonds. That market has been rallying for almost thirty years. The bull can be traced back to 1981, when Treasury bond yields peaked at above 15%. At that time, high inflation and a weakening dollar had justifiably squelched demand for Treasuries. Even the ultra-high interest rates were not enough to attract buyers.

There was also a ringing of the proverbial bell. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had signaled, by jacking up interest rates so high, that he would stop at nothing to break the back of inflation. Volcker’s iron will, and Reagan’s unflinching support, restored demand for Treasuries for the next three decades.

We have arrived today at a similar inflection point. After falling steadily for 30 years, bond yields are now heading north with a full head of steam.

Many are taking the recent moves in stride. The consensus is that despite the recent spike, yields are still historically low, and that they are unlikely to go much higher from here. Once again, most on Wall Street are either tone deaf or plugging their ears.

For years, the Fed has been able to prevent market forces from correcting our growing economic imbalances by inexorably pushing rates lower.?This happened in 1991, 2001, and most notably in 2008. These easing campaigns succeeded in boosting the economy in the short term by greatly increasing the amount of debt held by both the private and public sectors. As such, these episodes have allowed our economy to delay and magnify the ultimate reckoning.

Just like a junkie who requires ever-increasing doses of heroine to achieve the same high, the Fed has needed to take rates ever lower to boost the economy after its previous stimulants had faded.

To stimulate after the bursting of the housing bubble (which itself resulted from the low interest rates used to juice the economy following the bursting of the dot-com bubble), the Fed lowered interest rates to practically zero. At that point, rates could go no lower. However, when that stimulus failed, the Fed decided to bring on the heavy artillery in the form of “quantitative easing,” or as it is known in the vernacular, “printing money to buy government debt.”

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Lowering the federal funds rate, its traditional weapon, tends to make the most impact on short-duration debt. By its own words, the goal of quantitative easing (QE) was to lower long-term interest rates. It was hoped that this would achieve what low short-term rates had not: an increase in stock and real estate prices, a rise in household wealth, and consequently greater consumer spending, economic growth, and job creation.

However, the Fed’s plan backfired. The selling pressure on long-term bonds is overwhelming the Fed’s buying pressure. Spiking rates (which move inversely to price) are powerful evidence that the bond bubble has finally burst. The Fed threw everything but the kitchen sink at the bond market to force yields lower, yet?they?rose anyway. If bond prices failed to rise given such a Herculean effort to lift them up, there can be only one direction for them to go: down.

In true form, few on Wall Street hear the ringing. In a shocking display of rationalizing cognitive dissonance, some (such as Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel in a Wall Street Journal op-ed) have even suggested that the spike in yields is proof that quantitative easing is working. Siegel heralded higher rates as indicative of economic resurgence, which supposedly was the Fed’s goal all along. In other words, QE2 worked so well, we skipped the lower rates and went directly to the higher rates that go with growth!

There is also a widespread belief that long-term rates will remain contained at historically low levels. Four percent is seen as the ceiling above which ten-year yields will not rise. I believe this ceiling will prove to be of the thinnest glass. Once yields easily break that level, they may quickly rise above five percent, where they will likely encounter some resistance, before heading significantly higher.

In fact, if rates approach six percent next year, we will be seeing a ten-year high in ten-year yields. If our economy is this fragile with record low rates, image how much weaker it will be with rates at ten-year highs? If the Fed believes that lower rates revive an economy through the ‘wealth effect,’ what does the Fed feel will happen when higher rates produce a reverse ‘wealth effect’?

Not only does this bell herald the end of the bond bull, but it also marks the end of the Fed’s ability to artificially engender economic “growth” through monetary policy. More significantly, the new tax compromise President Obama is about to sign will add more than $900 billion in new debt onto the government’s balance sheet over the next 10 years. This will put additional upward pressure on interest rates, and more political pressure on the Fed to monetize the debt.? It is no coincidence that the real upward movement in yields began immediately after the tax/stimulus deal was brokered in Washington.

What lies ahead is a new era of rising interest rates, soaring consumer prices, increasing unemployment, economic stagnation, and lower living standards. Instead of stimulating the economy, quantitative easing and deficit spending will prove to be a lethal combination. Bondholders beware, the bell tolls for thee.

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MQM take up Mirza's statements with Gilani

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani talking to Dr Farooq Sattar at the Parliament House on September 9, 2010. PHOTO: SANA/FILE

ISLAMABAD:?A Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) delegation met with Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to take up the issue of controversial statements made by Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza against the party.

Mirza has stood by his earlier statement on target killer suspects belonging to the largest political party of the city. “I don’t sit and have dance parties with terrorists,” he said. I send them to court.”

The decision of the MQM with regard to the statement will also be discussed during the meeting.

The delegation, which was led by Dr Farooq Sattar, also discussed the reformed general sales tax (RGST).

Express 24/7 correspondent, Suhail Chaudhry reported that the prime minister will seek the MQM’s support on the tax.

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Zardari seeks PML-N support on RGST

This handout picture released by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz shows Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari (L) talking. PHOTO: AFP

ISLAMABAD:?President Asif Ali Zardari, replying to Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif’s letter, sought the cooperation of the party on the reformed general sales tax (RGST) issue.

Zardari stated that it was the PML-N senator Ishaq Dar who had ?proposed the tax through 15 amendments sent to the National Assembly.

In a detailed reply, President Zardari said that the PML-N should come up with suggestions on how to deal with issues the country was facing at the moment. He said that the PML-N’s reservations with the accountability bill would also be addressed. The PML-N had insisted that the head of the accountability commission should be a sitting judge of the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

The president also said that the government has nothing to do with petroleum prices as they were linked to the international market. He added that an elaborate business plan was being developed for national institutions, such as Pakistan Railways and Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), to make them more profitable.

The PML-N chief had earlier written a letter to the president, extending full support of his party if the government agreed to the PML-N’s agenda.

Following is the text of the President’s letter to Mian Nawaz Sharif:

Islamabad

18th December, 2010

I would like to thank you, once again, for your letter of 10th November 2010.? In my interim letter of 16th November 2010, I had assured you of a detailed reply to the issues raised in your letter.

Let me share with you my response.

Pakistan is passing through one of the most critical periods of its history. As heads of the major political parties we share a great burden of responsibility. Our people expect us to put national interests above partisan ones. They want us to act as statesmen and work together. They want us to fulfill their aspirations. We are answerable to our citizens. Indeed, as I said in my annual address to Parliament, we are all answerable to history.

“Divide and rule, the politician cries; unite and lead is watchword of

the wise.”????????????????? -? Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Our parties share a history of common struggle for democracy, especially in the recent past. In line with her philosophy of reconciliation, Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed invited Begum Kulsum Nawaz Sahiba to join the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy.

The positive response from your side and our collaboration helped the struggle for political freedom in Pakistan.

Honoring BB Shaheed’s legacy, the PPP has continued the politics of reconciliation and inclusion. It was as part of this policy that we invited your party to join a coalition Cabinet. I am pleased to note that senior members of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) were part of the Cabinet when the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) formed the government in

2008.?? Even now we remain partners in government in the Punjab and

continue to work together within and outside the parliament on national issues.

Allow me now to share with you some of the serious challenges facing our country and our attempts to deal with them.

Militancy and extremism pose the greatest threat to our national security. Our citizens have been targeted. Our troops attacked. Our resources diverted. Our economy hurt. We continue to pay a price in terms of lives, image, and money. However, it is important that our resolve is not weakened. We must remain determined to rid our society of this menace. We must fight to the finish. We will follow a policy of dialogue, deterrence and development. Make peace with those who abandon violence. But use force against those who challenge the writ of the State. In this struggle, let me acknowledge the courage, and resilience displayed by our brave soldiers and police, and above all, the people of our country.

Forging a national consensus on the war against militancy has been a significant achievement of our government. This consensus contributed to the restoration of the government’s writ – and subsequent peace – in the Malakand region. We successfully provided relief to 2.5 million IDPs who were re-settled in their homes in just four months.

As you know, our country has been struck by the worst floods of our history. 20 million people have been affected. An area the size of UK has been inundated.? Millions of acres of standing crops have been destroyed; 1.6 million homes damaged. The losses have been estimated at over ten billion dollars. This human and economic catastrophe has disrupted our government’s efforts to stabilize the economy and slowed our plans to bring prosperity to our people. In the face of this unprecedented challenge the government has tried to marshal all resources.

All Federal agencies, including the armed forces, the NDMA, the related ministries were mobilized. An international campaign was launched through the UN system and bilateral governments to secure support. Coordination with the Provincial governments was undertaken through the NDMC, the CCI, and other fora. The combined efforts led to the minimization of casualties, prevented the outbreak of disease and helped with successful rescue and relief on an unprecedented scale.

The federal government has taken the lead – and with cooperation of the provincial governments — in providing support of up to Rs 100,000 per affected family. This citizens’ damage compensation program has been launched through a transparent Watan card mechanism.? This has been widely hailed as a model, combining the use of modern technology with local commitment, for transfer of cash to the affectees.? About Rs 25 billion have already been distributed in the first phase.

The government has also adopted a program for providing free seed and fertilizer and subsidized credit to the affected farmers to help them in rebuilding their livelihoods and ensuring high levels of production in the coming crop season.

Let me now highlight two landmark achievements of our government, in which the collaboration of our two parties is most manifest. These two achievements are: the restoration of the Constitution to its original purity and the empowerment of the provinces.

The 1973 Constitution remains the symbol of national unity. It was Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s legacy and reflects the will of the entire nation for the rule of law and democracy. It now stands restored through the passage of the eighteenth amendment.

We have also taken historic steps to transfer greater power and resources to the provinces. Functions and Ministries have been devolved from the center to the provinces. The share of the provinces in the divisible pool has been increased from 50 percent to 57.5 percent. In this fiscal year alone three hundred billion extra rupees are likely to be received by the provinces. The foundations of a new Pakistan – more just, more equitable, more harmonious — have been laid.

We have moved concretely to resolve some outstanding issues related to smaller provinces and regions and to give them a full sense of inclusion in national affairs. We have publicly apologized to the people of Baluchistan for their grievances. Our Government has followed up with tangible constitutional, political, administrative and economic reforms under the package, Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Baluchistan.

Our party’s policy of extending political rights and inclusiveness is reflected in the grant of political representation for the first time to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. The same spirit led us to promulgate the Political Parties Order into FATA, thus giving the tribal areas greater flexibility in self determination.

The empowerment and emancipation of women was central to BB Shaheed’s philosophy. Our Government’s programs reflect this thinking. The Benazir Income Support Program and Behan Benazir Basti Program are platforms for poverty alleviation focused entirely on women in a way, manner and to an extent that was never seen before.

We have also taken steps to improve the welfare of our workers and given them a stake in the state enterprises. Thus, the worker who toils day and night to ensure that profits are earned is no longer forgotten. The Benazir Employees Stock Option Scheme gives the labourer a 12.5 share in the state enterprise where he is employed. To increase the purchasing power of the workers the Government has raised the minimum wage to Rs.7000 and adopted other welfare enhancing measures.

I now turn to the biggest challenges facing us — that of a burgeoning young population, economic stabilization and turnaround.

Let me share with you our efforts, the results achieved, and the collective response required to fully succeed in meeting the economic challenges.

As you well know the economic situation in March 2008, was precarious:

the country was faced with a soaring fiscal deficit; GDP growth had slowed down; foreign exchange reserves were under pressure; the current account deficit was out of control; government borrowing from the State Bank was aggravating inflation. The bleak economic scenario then prevailing was effectively articulated by the first Finance Minister of the coalition government, Senator Ishaq Dar. In his analysis of the situation, Senator Dar had also, correctly, pointed out that policy lapses, including the non-adjustment of prices of imported oil by the previous government were largely responsible for this inherited situation.

The seeds of our economic difficulties can be traced to financial year

2005 when inflationary pressures began to surface. The high growth during the middle years of the present decade was based on external flows, a loose monetary policy and an artificially depressed exchange rate. After the oil price shocks the prices of energy were not rationalized, the fiscal extravagance continued and no serious structural reforms were undertaken.? In short, we inherited a dismal economic situation. We had hoped to jointly find a way out of this situation.? However, after your leaving the government in the Center, we and our other coalition partners have been left to address the economic challenges facing the country.

Given the worsening crisis, our government exercised the timely option of approaching the IMF and negotiated a Standby Arrangement in November, 2008. This move arrested the imminent slide and moved the tangible economy towards stability.? Clear signs of recovery became noticeable when growth recovered to 4.1% in 2009 -10. Foreign exchange reserves which stood at $4 billion when we assumed office today have crossed the $17 billion mark. Remittances have increased to $9 billion from $5.5 billion in 2007. We were targeting a growth rate of 4.5% in 2010 -11.? However, the untimely floods have slowed our country’s economic recovery.

Inflation, as you mentioned in your letter, is of equal concern to our Government. Inflation affects the well being of our citizens, specially the most vulnerable groups. The main reason for inflation, as you surely know, is the gap between our revenues and our expenditures. This financing gap is met through borrowings from the domestic markets which raise the rate of interest- the cost of borrowing-thus causing inflation.

In one sense, therefore, an unsustainable fiscal deficit is the main reason for our inflation. There are only two possible ways of reducing the fiscal deficit through cutting expenditures and increasing revenues. It is because of our serious desire to combat inflation, that we have taken significant steps in order to minimize spending and maximize revenue collection.

On the expenditure side the Federal Government has moved aggressively to cut costs. In the budget the Government has curtailed its non-salary current expenditures at the last year’s level. The expenditures of the Aiwan-e-Sadr and Prime Minister’s Secretariat have also been included in this cut. On the PSDP we have also taken bold steps to bring down the size by over 100 billion rupees and rationalize the project portfolio. We are also undertaking a rigorous review of all expenditures to identify further reductions in federal expenditures.

We would expect the Provincial Governments, who have been the beneficiaries of the NFC award to show similar discipline and adopt cost-cutting measures so that the national fiscal deficit is brought close to the target level of 4.7% of the GDP. While realizing the trend of inflation and price hike, the Prime Minister has also addressed a letter (copy enclosed) to all Provinces which are best placed to take appropriate steps to control prices, and they must play their due role.

I hope you recall that our efforts to contain fiscal deficit were stalled in FY 2008-09 when the Punjab Government resorted to excessive borrowing from the State Bank. In a spirit of cooperation, our government condoned this lapse and converted the temporary borrowing into a long term loan to ease the fiscal pressures of the Punjab Government. Our government also assisted the Government of the Punjab by allowing the use of borrowed money and investing Rs 10 billion in the Bank of Punjab which otherwise would have been in acute financial distress. In a further effort to assist the Punjab Government, the Federal Government picked up the cost of excess wheat procured by the Punjab Government and injected Rs 12 billion into the Punjab exchequer. These measures, though adding to the national fiscal difficulties have helped the Punjab, financially. However, given our commitment to austerity in the larger public interest, we would be looking at the Punjab, and the other provinces to pursue a policy of financial restraint.

A historic failure of our country has been the inability to mobilize domestic resources. This has made us dependent on foreign assistance.

Low tax base has also compromised our ability to provide services such as health, education, drinking water and law and order to our people.

We are therefore determined to tackle this issue to reduce the fiscal deficit and fight inflation. In this year’s budget the government levied a tax on equities (stocks) for the first time in our history.

The General Sales Tax Bill 2010 has been introduced in the parliament to revive the process of GST Reform that was stalled for a number of years.

Our Government shares your keen desire for a more transparent economy.

A strong motivation for the reform of the GST is precisely to address your concerns about transparency. It will document the ability of every citizen to pay tax thereby minimizing evasion. This tax, however, will not be applicable to basic food items, health and education sectors, a move clearly designed to assist the common man.

The establishment of the Inland Revenue Service where all taxation will be under one administrative umbrella will complement tax collection and the documentation process. The FBR has also introduced a centralized cheques issuing system for payment of refunds to eliminate corruption. You will be pleased to know that in the last 3 months alone – cheques have been issued in the amount of Rs eleven billion with zero corruption. These measures are the gateway to systemic reform and transparency.

Detailed negotiations were held with the provinces to secure their

support for GST Reform.?? After the agreement of all the provinces,

the reformed GST Bill 2010 was tabled in the Senate.? We were happy to note that your party’s representative in the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue, Senator Ishaq Dar, along with all the Senators representing all the major political parties – ANP, MQM, PML-Q, JI and Independents – unanimously recommended the RGST law along with 15 minor amendments. The Senate adopted those recommendations along with the Bill, and referred it to the National Assembly.? We also hoped for your support in the National Assembly for the passage of this important reform measure.

The coalition government is committed to pursuing an economic reform agenda of stabilization with structural reforms while protecting the poor. I am happy to note that you support the reform of Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) mentioned by the Finance Minister in his budget speech. A Cabinet Committee on Restructuring of PSE’s has already been formed and a comprehensive plan for restructuring of the power sector companies has been launched with the aim of bringing private sector into the management of the distribution companies. This would bring a saving in excess of Rs. 250 billion in the financial year 2011-12. A restructuring plan of Pakistan Railways has also been approved and work initiated to convert Pakistan Railways over a period of 3-4 years into a profitable organization. Business plans are under preparation for all other loss making PSEs like Pakistan Steel Mills, Pakistan International Airlines, Trading Corporation of Pakistan and Utility Stores Corporation, with a time frame of 4-6 months for implementation. We would be grateful if your party facilitates the government in its restructuring plans for these entities, and extends support to our policy to promote public private partnerships to protect Pakistan’s national interest.

The coalition government is pursing a policy of elimination of general subsidies which tend to benefit the rich more than the poor, and replace these with targeted subsidies for the poor and vulnerable communities alone. The Benazir Income Support Programme has been internationally recognized as a flagship poverty alleviation program with targeted subsidies to the poor.? 50 billion Rupees have been budgeted to benefit the targeted poor, under this programme. Support to the poor and lower middle class, extended through multiple platforms like Zakat and Ushr, Bait-ul-Mal and micro-finance credit schemes also remain in place.

Steps have also been initiated by the coalition government to help the middle class by raising the exemption limit of income tax to Rs.

300,000 per annum.? This has directly benefitted 780,000 middle class individuals and over 4 million of their family members.? Our government’s decision to increase the salaries of the armed forces and law enforcement agencies by 100% directly benefitted over 1 million individuals and over 5 million of their family members.? Similarly, our decision to increase the salaries of federal employees by 50% directly benefitted 600,000 individuals and around 3 million of their family members.

The government also moved to benefit the majority of our people in the country side by correcting the procurement prices of wheat and bringing it to Rs 950 per 40 Kg. This move has brought prosperity in large parts of our country and helped the farmers. This policy also led Pakistan to a record production of 24 million tons of wheat and the potential to become a net exporter for the first time in six years. Currently Pakistan has sufficient stocks of almost 9 million tons of wheat.? Similarly, the intervention price introduced for rice led to an increase in rice production from 5.5 million to 6.9 million in just one year. Cotton production increased as well from 11.6 million to 11.8 million bales. Therefore, it is clear that all agricultural indicators and the consequent boom in the rural economy have vindicated our original stance despite your party’s skepticism.

Industrial growth, in recent times, has been hampered largely by the energy crisis. Our view is that the seeds of Pakistan’s current energy deficit were sown in the aftermath of BB Shaheed’s second term in power. The PPP led government of the time introduced a prescient power policy which added 5653 MW to the national grid in a record span of three years. The IPPs were given terms that ensured that the Government of Pakistan would be procuring energy from them at a uniform rate of 6.5 cents per KW – a price that would be locked in for a period of 20 years – compared to 18 cents per KW today. The failure of successive governments after the dismissal of ours to attract investment in this sector has created a supply shortage that will take time to clear. Today, unfortunately, there is no magic wand that can be waved to restore investors’ confidence and remove the deficit of 15 years, overnight.

It was also BB Shaheed’s foresight that her government arranged in the 1990s, international funding and initiated work on a major hydel project, Ghazi Barotha. Had the democratic process been allowed to complete its natural course, Pakistan would have certainly been a beneficiary today.

We believe that a more balanced energy mix is essential for Pakistan’s future. Therefore, we are vigorously pursuing alternate sources of energy including the Thar Coal gasification project, the completion of the Diamer Bhasha Dam, and for the first time in our country’s history

– wind power production. The last PPP government had laid the foundations of a new regional energy policy. During my recent visit to Turkmenistan, we signed the historic Turkish-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline which has cemented the future energy corridors for the region.

I do share your concern for the increase in POL and electricity prices.? But we need to appreciate that POL prices in Pakistan are linked directly to international market prices, and are free of Government interference. A subsidy can only lead to the fiscal indiscipline that Mr. Dar referred to as Finance Minister, and will contribute to inflation indirectly by increasing the fiscal deficit.

On the issues of accountability and transparency, the sincerity of the Government can be judged by our appointment – for the first time ever

- of the Leader of the Opposition as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee in the National Assembly. I hope that the Leader of the Opposition has apprised you of all the support and cooperation that the Government extends to his office. We are also fulfilling our constitutional obligation to ensure oversight of public finances by strengthening the office of the Auditor General.

In regard to your concerns about the delay in the passing of the Ehtesab Bill, let me point out that a Bill to repeal the National Accountability Ordinance 1999 and to enact new law of accountability was introduced in the National Assembly in April, 2009. The Bill was discussed by the Committee in more than thirty meetings after it was tabled in the National Assembly. A Report of the Committee was submitted in the National Assembly. However, members of the PML (N) protested on the grounds that their amendments had not been fully incorporated in the proposed law, as was reported by the Committee. In this backdrop, the Chairperson of the Standing Committee decided to reconsider the Bill and to deliberate upon the outstanding issues arising out of the dissenting note of PML (N) members.? It is hoped that the matter will be resolved in one or two sittings of the Committee to enable the submission of a final report.

As I mentioned at the outset of my letter, we believe that a serious challenge facing Pakistan today is the menace of terrorism and extremism. It is tearing apart the fabric of our society and hindering progress and prosperity. I would be glad to hear your views and recommendations in dealing with this issue.

Let me conclude by expressing my deep gratitude to you for sharing your concerns as head of a political party that is in government in our largest province. The Pakistan Peoples Party has always maintained that you could have played a more effective role as an elected Member of Parliament and that we would have benefited from your guidance more frequently as is the norm in a parliamentary system.

Reconciliation remains the guiding policy of our Party. And it is in this spirit that I once again extend a hand to you and your party to work with the Government on its reform agenda in the collective national and democratic interest. I propose that you nominate representatives from amongst your senior leadership to carry this dialogue forward so that we can jointly take the difficult decisions required to take our country forward.

I look forward to our continuing cooperation.

With profound regards,

Yours Sincerely,

(ASIF ALI ZARDARI)

Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif

Quaid, Pakistan Muslim League (N),

Jati Umra, Raiwind Road,

Lahore.

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