SAP Tags $60 Stock Price By Hanging On To CRM Market Share

Big upside ahead

SAP stills holds the number one position in customer relationship management (CRM) software market with an estimated share of around 23%. (1) However this share has declined gradually due to increased software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings from companies like Advanced Micro Devices, Salesforce.com and Oracle.

While we expect SAP’s share to decline to 18% by 2017, the Trefis community predicts flat market share in the 22% to 23% range, corresponding to an upside of 5% to our price estimate for SAP’s stock.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $57.49 for SAP’s stock, about 15% above the current market price.

Increasing Adoption of SaaS

Companies like Salesforce.com and Microsoft have increased their SaaS offerings which work on the on-demand principle. With SaaS, enterprises can license only the amount of software required versus the traditional way of procuring the license per device. The service is provided through the Internet and the actual data and IT infrastructure resides with the host rather than the client. Hence the client does not need to bear extra cost of infrastructure and can also start using the solution immediately. SAP has also been slow in adoption of SAP Business ByDesign, a SaaS offering.

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Positive Results from Oracle’s Acquisition of Siebel

Oracle acquired Siebel in 2006 for its CRM offerings. Oracle could not immediately benefit from this acquisition due to the time required for the expected synergies to fall in place and struggled to increase its market share. We expect that Oracle would now be in a position to start benefiting from Siebel’s acquisition, adding another threat to SAP’s supremacy in the CRM market.

Trefis Community Forecast

The Trefis community forecasts that SAP’s market share in customer relationship software will remain within a range of 22% to 23% through 2017, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 21% to 18% during the same period. The community estimates imply an additional 5% upside to the Trefis price estimate for SAP’s stock, which is already roughly 15% ahead of market value.

Our complete analysis for SAP’s stock is here.

Notes:

1)Estimated based on data from Gartner Research

Trefis members constitute more than tens of thousands of users of the Trefis platform, inclusive of investors, financial analysts, and business professionals who use the Trefis platform to create their own models and price estimates.

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With The 10-Year Treasury At 3.28%, Can We Start Calling This A Bond Market Crash?

What's up, Ben?

Somehow, we don’t think this is what Ben Bernanke had in mind when he launched another round of easy money five weeks ago.

Indeed, he promised us lower long-term interest rates, but on Wednesday morning, the yield on a 10-year Treasury note reached its highest level in more than six months, 3.28%.

There are two possible explanations: the benign one, and the more likely one. The benign one, pimped by Deutsche Bank, zeroes in on the cut in payroll tax that’s part of the grand bargain between President Obama and congressional Republicans. Deutsche figures that’ll add 0.7% to GDP during the next two years.

The more likely one is evident even to the always-late-to-the party analysts at Moody’s and Fitch: The grand bargain is just digging Uncle Sam into a bigger hole. The rating agencies reckon that with no spending cuts as part of the deal, it’ll add another $1 trillion to the national debt, above and beyond what’s already baked into the cake.

Really, should anyone be surprised? After Bernanke launched the first round of “quantitative easing” in March 2009, the rate on the 10-year spiked from 2.5% to over 4% within three months.? Look for 4% by early February, but let’s even go a step further.

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“Every streak must come to an end,” says our income-investing specialist Jim Nelson. “On Nov. 17, that truism hit home in the bond fund world. It was the first week in the previous 100 that saw a net outflow of money. “Investors, after nearly two years of manic consumption, are finally leery over the future of bonds.”

That outflow continued in the week ending December 1, according to a report from EPFR Global analysts. Few sectors were spared…

• Global bond funds suffered their second outflow in 3 weeks
• Redemptions on high-yield funds hit a 6-month-high
• Emerging-market bond funds saw 2 consecutive weeks of outflows for the first time since April 2009.

There’s no shortage of reasons, Jim says. “Start with QE2…then add Ireland’s new massive bailout…throw in the new permanent bailout fund for the eurozone. And what do you get? Panicked and confused investors.

“Now, that’s not to say they won’t forget about this in another couple of days and pile right back into bond funds. But if this is a true turning point, we might soon see some discount opportunities – something we haven’t had in quite a while.

“But,” Jim reminded his Lifetime Income Report readers recently, “even as the rest of the world struggles with tough issues, we still find ourselves in a pretty good place. We have a number of solid, undervalued plays that have plenty of capital and growing dividends.”

Ah, dividends. That’s going to be the key for income investors if the 28-year bull market in bonds is really over. Say this much for the Obama-GOP Grand Bargain: It leaves the tax rate on dividend income alone, at least for two more years.

Two Possible Reasons for the Rise in 10-Year Treasury Notes by Addison Wiggin originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

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Jobs Number Is Nothing, Bullish Market Trend And Tide Of Positive Data Matter More

The bull still bucks

After a strong rally in September and October, the stock market topped out short-term four weeks ago, with the Dow then declining 4% in just seven days. In the process it broke below key short-term support levels that market technicians watch, and entered a very narrow sideways trading range, locked between 11,000 on the downside and 11,200 on the upside that it couldn’t seem to break out of in either direction.

Then came this dizzying week. Early in the week it looked like the market might be breaking out of the range to the downside. The Dow dropped below 11,000 by as much as 70 points in intraday trading on both Monday and Tuesday. Both days it recovered before the market closed, but to levels just fractionally above 11,000, leaving traders still worried.

A break out of the range to the downside would be seen as a negative development, and that possibility seemed justified given the dire reports from Europe indicating a domino effect is potentially underway in its debt crisis, and reports from China of more moves by the Chinese government to significantly slow its globally important economy (in an effort to prevent asset bubbles and ward off inflation).

However, on Wednesday the market instead reversed and surged to the upside, the Dow gaining 249 points, its biggest one day gain since September 1. On Thursday it surged up again, the Dow gaining another 106 points, breaking it clearly out of the previous narrow trading range to the upside, just two days after it had appeared to be breaking out to the downside.

The dramatic move to the upside also seemed justified, since the bad news from Europe and China had dropped out of the headlines, replaced by very positive U.S. economic reports, including gains in consumer confidence, manufacturing activity reports, retail sales, auto sales, pending home sales, and so on.

But the week’s drama was still not over.

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The improving economic reports of the last couple of months had economists convinced that the big report of the week, the Labor Department’s employment report for November, would show that 155,000 new jobs were created in November. When the much anticipated report was released Friday morning it was a huge disappointment, showing that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The economy needs roughly 150,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with the growing population, as more young people join the workforce.

Perhaps a bigger surprise and disappointment was that the already high unemployment rate ticked up to 9.8% from the previous 9.6%. The report threw a curve at economists.

The dismal employment situation, and what to do about it, has been the main focus of economic and political debates, particularly since the summer’s temporary scare that the economy might be slipping back into recession. One of the most common statements in those debates has been that the economy cannot recover until more jobs are created.? On the surface that seems to make sense, but history shows that employment is a lagging indicator, one of the last areas to begin improving in an economic recovery. That makes more sense. Employers do not begin hiring additional workers until well after the economy has recovered enough that they can no longer handle improving business by simply increasing the hours of their current employees and hiring temporary workers.

The dismal employment report should not overshadow the string of very positive economic reports of the last couple of months: gains in consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, retail sales, auto sales, pending home sales, and so on. They are the leading indicators that must improve for quite some time before employment finally begins to turn the corner.

Not that everything is wonderful in those leading areas. Investing is never worry-free.

The main leading indicators in both directions, into recessions and back out, are almost always housing and autos. That makes sense since they are the two largest purchases consumers make, usually with most of the purchase price financed, significantly multiplying the economic effect of the cash down payment, while increased home construction and auto production results in significant new business for the long stream of suppliers to those industries.

Only one of those economic engines, auto sales, seems to be functioning well so far, with the housing industry still mired in the mud. Nor have the market’s worries earlier in the week regarding Europe’s debt crisis and the intention of China to slow its economy, gone away.

So still plenty of potential bumps in the road.

But an encouraging and dramatic two-day upside reversal from the downside break that threatened the first two days of the week.

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Why December 15 Could Be The Day Tax Hikes Crash The Stock Market

Leona Helmsley and Trouble

This week, we witnessed this spectacular moment in the history of the republic: Having just left a luncheon at the office of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), we were walking across the Capitol steps to get to Union Station. One of our party mentioned he had never been to the House gallery to view the floor debates. So we decided to drop in as tourists.

After negotiating the labyrinth of security, coat checks and corridors, we were ushered into three seats in the front row of Gallery booth No. 7, less than two feet behind the C-SPAN cameras installed there to monitor the proceedings. A scant five minutes passed and Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) walked to the podium with an easel and a 5-foot picture of the late hotel heiress Leona Helmsley holding her dog, Trouble.

“Under the Republican plan,” we gathered from his speech from press reports later, “if Trouble doesn’t get a tax break, nobody else should. Under the Republicans’ plan, this country will go to the dogs. They’ll protect this little dog, but they won’t protect the middle class of this country.”

“Ugh,” we said, “We can’t listen to this.” We got up and left. In Dr. Paul’s office, we had heard how everyone in attendance had planned to vote already. Surely, the grandstanding Mr. Crowley was just getting his arguments logged into the public record.

Ha. Fat chance. No sooner had we returned home but saw the same smug photo of Helmsley featured in the lead story on Nightly News With Brian Williams. Mr. Crowley’s absurdity had actually been taken seriously–nay, lapped up by the press. In the end, Democrats got their bill passed. The so-called Bush-era tax cuts were made permanent for individuals with incomes below $200,000, and couples below $250,000.

Three members of the Liberty Caucus we met for lunch – Ron Paul, Walter Jones and John Duncan – were the only Republicans who “crossed the aisle” figuring a tax cut for some people is better than for none. They say they’ll really get down to debating taxes when this lame-duck session of Congress is over.

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Meanwhile, employers across the nation are wondering how much money they should withhold from employees’ paychecks just four weeks from now. The IRS is dithering on issuing its new withholding tables, which usually come out in mid-November. Payroll departments need two or three weeks to plug the data into their computers.

What if nothing happens by, say, December 15? Our forecast: We’ll see one doozy of a stock market sell-off.

“Capital gains tax rate will increase from 15% to 20% if the tax cuts are not extended,” says analyst Daniel Clifton of Strategas Research Partners. “The last time the capital gains tax rate increased – on January 1, 1987, from 20% to 28% – investors realized their gains at the lower tax rate.”

Clifton says many of his clients will decide whether to hold on or sell by December 15 a week from next Wednesday. That’s the last day to trade stocks before index options cease trading in advance of options-expiration Friday. If Congress doesn’t act, investors will.

The Trouble With Tax Cuts by Addison Wiggin originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

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AMD Stock Price Sensitive To Intel Market Share Theft

Stands to gain nicely from market share steals

Intel dominates the notebook processor market with an estimated 86% market share while AMD controls almost 14% by our estimates. ^[] We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $25.53 for Intel’s stock and a price estimate of $8.07 for AMD’s stock.

While Intel dominates, competition is becoming more intense with each company rolling out newer integrated computing and graphics platforms. At the core of this is a fight for market share.

We forecast market share remaining stable for both currently but note that a hypothetical 5 percentage point increase implies 2.5% upside in our share price estimate for Intel and 11% for AMD. So the little guy clearly has more to gain. See our modifiable charts below.

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In September 2010, Intel launched its second-generation core architecture, Sandy Bridge, a 32-nanometer chip that can put CPUs and GPUs onto a single piece of silicon designed for tasks like handling high-definition video.

Intel management immodestly called Sandy Bridge the largest increase in computing performance in its history and places high expectations on its business impact. ^[] The company began large-scale production this past quarter and expects to start earning revenues on these shipments in Q4 2010.

In response, AMD introduced Llano accelerated processing unit in October 2010, a part of the company’s Fusion initiative. Some of tasks carried out by Llano include calculating the value of Pi to 32 million decimal places and decoding HD video from a Blu-ray disc, as claimed by AMD. ^[] Production is slated for earlier next year after rumors of some delays.

While performance tests for both have been good so far, we won’t see the data on a large scale until next year. So until then, who do you think will gain share?

Our complete analysis for Intel’s stock is here.

Our complete analysis for AMD’s stock is here.

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AMD Stock Price Sensitive To Intel Market Share Theft

Stands to gain nicely from market share steals

Intel dominates the notebook processor market with an estimated 86% market share while AMD controls almost 14% by our estimates. ^[] We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $25.53 for Intel’s stock and a price estimate of $8.07 for AMD’s stock.

While Intel dominates, competition is becoming more intense with each company rolling out newer integrated computing and graphics platforms. At the core of this is a fight for market share.

We forecast market share remaining stable for both currently but note that a hypothetical 5 percentage point increase implies 2.5% upside in our share price estimate for Intel and 11% for AMD. So the little guy clearly has more to gain. See our modifiable charts below.

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In September 2010, Intel launched its second-generation core architecture, Sandy Bridge, a 32-nanometer chip that can put CPUs and GPUs onto a single piece of silicon designed for tasks like handling high-definition video.

Intel management immodestly called Sandy Bridge the largest increase in computing performance in its history and places high expectations on its business impact. ^[] The company began large-scale production this past quarter and expects to start earning revenues on these shipments in Q4 2010.

In response, AMD introduced Llano accelerated processing unit in October 2010, a part of the company’s Fusion initiative. Some of tasks carried out by Llano include calculating the value of Pi to 32 million decimal places and decoding HD video from a Blu-ray disc, as claimed by AMD. ^[] Production is slated for earlier next year after rumors of some delays.

While performance tests for both have been good so far, we won’t see the data on a large scale until next year. So until then, who do you think will gain share?

Our complete analysis for Intel’s stock is here.

Our complete analysis for AMD’s stock is here.

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Market Gives Bronx Cheer For Bernanke’s QE2

Market is not rallying

As you remember, dear reader, we decided to hoist our old, tattered “Crash Alert” flag up last week. About mid-week, as we recall. Not that we had any inside information. Mr. Market doesn’t talk to us directly. We just read the papers, just like everyone else.

What we noticed last week was that the Fed had given stocks, bonds commodities, and gold the biggest push in recorded history with $600 billion coming into the market. It was long. It was going to stay long, and if it didn’t do the job there was plenty more where that came from. Plenty more. Because this money came from nowhere, and if you can get money out of nowhere you can get a lot of it.

In effect, Ben Bernanke gave the market the Mother of All Puts. Stocks go down? Put them to the Fed. They’ll buy anything.

Yes, Mr. Bernanke is trying to give “risk on” investors a put, protecting them from the downside by adding more and more money. No, investors are not sure this plan is really going to do them any good. The stock market went up only very briefly on the day following Mr. Bernanke’s announcement. Then, there was no follow-through.

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All very well to get hot and bothered speculating on the fall of the dollar (and the rise of everything else). But there is something so desperate and foolhardy in Mr. Bernanke’s money-printing, it just doesn’t feel right. It feels more like something a banana republic would do. The central bank is encouraging speculation. Oh, by the way, who speculates? Is it the poor? The middle classes? The working stiffs?

No? It’s the speculators, right? The rich, in other words, are the guys who can get money at ultra-low interest rates from the Fed (directly or indirectly) and use it to speculate on say, cotton (up almost 100% this year) or Chinese stocks.

The Fed has just given the elite a huge wad of cash and a promise that it will put up more cash, if necessary and yet, stocks did not go up much. Something is wrong. That’s why we raised the “crash alert” flag. It is as if this market wanted to go down, no matter what the Fed was doing. Or maybe it didn’t trust the Fed. Or maybe investors figured that acting like a banana republic was not really good for stock prices.

We don’t like the looks of it and we’re get out of all risky investments.

How the Market Really Feels About Bernanke’s Money Printing by Bill Bonner originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

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Market Meets New Wall of Worry Or More Likely Just Brief Profit-Taking On Way To Higher Highs

Stocks pulled back after a big advance and that can be good for bull markets

Most of the bricks in the previous wall of worry have been removed.?Economic reports have continued to improve over recent weeks; in manufacturing, the service sector, retail sales, durable goods orders, and even in the employment picture, where 151,000 new jobs were created in October, more than double the 70,000 that economists expected.

The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s QE2 decision has been resolved with the Fed adding to the stimulating atmosphere, providing another round of quantitative easing in spite of the already improving economy.

The major U.S. market indexes, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rallied back to, and then above the potential resistance at their April peaks, before pulling back some this week.

Investors have become even more bullish and optimistic. This week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors showed 57.6% bullish, the highest level in almost four years.

The good news apparently also reached Main Street. On Friday morning it was reported that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 69.3 in early November (its highest level in five months) from 67.7 in October.

So what has been wrong with global markets this week?

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The U.S. market closed down roughly 2.5% for the week. Emerging markets, which many analysts projected would benefit the most from inflows of additional liquidity provided by the Fed’s decision, were down the most. Brazil, India, South Korea, closed down two to three percent for the week, while China closed down a big 5.5%. Meanwhile, Japan, a large developed country, which was not supposed to fare as well as emerging country markets, closed up 1.0% for the week.

A bet against emerging markets via the ProShares UltraShort Emerging Markets ETF, symbol EEV (designed to move up when emerging markets move down, and leveraged two to one) closed up almost 9.0% for the week.

Was it just that markets had become short-term overbought and ran into a brief bout of profit-taking, particularly since this was the week before the month’s options expirations week, and the week before tends to be negative?

If so, markets are likely to be back up next week since the decline this week took care of the short-term overbought condition, and next week is the week of the expirations, which tend to be positive.

Or was the decline the beginning of something more serious?

The market does seem to have a new wall of worry just a week after concerns about the economic recovery, and whether the Fed would or would not provide additional quantitative easing, faded away.

The bricks in the new wall of worry include:

• Concerns that the Fed’s additional stimulus may cause new problems rather than help the economy by encouraging home purchases or providing new jobs.
• Worries that commodity prices had spiked up into bubbles which may burst, a worry that struck Friday with the big $40 an ounce (3%) plunge in the price of gold, and equally large declines in the price of oil and other important commodities.
• Apprehensions about the activities of the Chinese government, including talk that it might hike interest rates to dramatically slow its globally important economy and ward off threatening excessive inflation in China.
• Anxiety about a potential currency or trade war if the decline in the U.S. dollar continues.

Via technical analysis there is also the U.S. market’s intermediate-term overbought condition above 20-week moving averages, and the high level of investor bullishness (which is at levels of complacency often seen at market tops).

The uncertainties have even extended to U.S. Treasury bonds, which investors have piled into as a perceived safe haven over the last two years. The safe haven over the last two months has actually been a bet against U.S. Treasury bonds. For instance, the ‘inverse’ ProShares Short 20-year bond etf, symbol TBF, designed to move up when bonds move down, has gained 11% since early September, while bonds have declined 11%.

There’s no doubt about it. We are still in a very fluid economic and investing period, not a time for investors to become so complacent as the investor sentiment readings seem to indicate, that they fall asleep at the switch.

(In the interest of full disclosure, we have positions in the U.S. market, the Japanese market, gold, and the ‘inverse’ bond ETF TBF, in our portfolio, at least at the moment).

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With The Election And Fed Uncertainty Soon Resolved, Grip Tightly For Stock Market Volatility

What will Ben Bernanke do?

The big week has arrived, and opinions are all over the lot, creating unusual uncertainty.

Today it’s the mid-term elections, with Republicans expected to gain enough seats in the House and Senate to create gridlock.?That will be a good thing, or not, depending on who you listen to at any given moment.

In one camp gridlock is a good thing. If politicians can’t agree on changes and laws, they can’t make changes that would make the economy worse. This camp?points to the 1990s when a Republican Congress and a Democratic White House engaged in?constant wrangling, often unable to even get annual federal budgets agreed to on time.

But the gridlock did no harm to the almost record period of economic growth of the 1990s, which ended with prior budget deficits becoming budget surpluses, powered by increased government income from taxes on the wages of full employment, strong corporate profits from the economic boom, and taxes on the profits being made in the longest, strongest bull market in history.

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In the other camp are those who say the economy is in far different shape this time around, just beginning to come out of the worst recession since the 1930s, struggling with high unemployment, slow growth, a collapsed housing industry, and high consumer debt. They claim it will be dangerous to have a government unable to take quick actions that may become needed at any time. They point to periods like the early 1980s when decisive changes by government and record deficit spending were needed to recover the economy from severe downturns. And they?say that?created the positive economy of the late 1980s and set up conditions for such a strong economy in the 1990s that gridlock did no harm, since further government action was not needed.

Uncertainties. ??Tomorrow comes the week’s second big event, the Fed’s decision on QE2.

In one camp are those who expect a ‘shock and awe’ level of additional quantitative easing. Fed Chairman Bernanke has said the government needs to do more to re-stimulate the economy. It could well be that he is thinking that if the rest of government is going to be tied down in gridlock the Fed must act with more aggressive efforts than it would like to.

In the other camp are those expecting the Fed to provide only a watered-down version of quantitative easing. They point out that recent economic reports show the economic recovery has gotten itself back on track, is not in the danger of a double-dip the Fed saw a couple of months ago, that substantial further quantitative easing is not needed, and will cause more problems than it solves (including further angering nations around the world, and creating a currency war).

Even that is not the end of this week’s uncertainties. On Friday the Labor Department will release its monthly jobs report for October. The monthly employment report has a history of most often coming in with a surprise in one direction or the other that creates a one or two-day triple-digit move by the Dow in one direction or the other.

The price of uncertainty is volatility. The price of unusual uncertainty is almost sure to be an unusual level of whipsawing volatility, and at a time when investor sentiment is at a high level of complacency.

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The India market share loss could cost Nokia 20 %

IDC recently came out with a report on market share of Nokia in India indicating part of Nokia, which mobile phone handsets has decreased from 54% in 2009 to 36.3% in the second quarter of 2010. Nokia, however, refute these claims arguing that IDC do not count shipments from its plant in Chennai ^[]. The India is the second largest market after China for Nokia in emerging markets. If the IDC claims are true, and continues this steep decline in market share, it may be a disadvantage for the Trefis price estimate $12.33 for Nokia stock.

Potential drawbacks of Nokia stock

Has a few months, we discussed how Nokia is slowly losing its dominant position in the Indian market of mobile phones.Article of IDC not only reinforces this point, but also indicates that market share declines are much larger that had originally been thought.Our estimates indicate that Nokia sold approximately 60 million phones in India in 2009, a total of 300 million sold in markets émergents.Cela implies that about 20% of Nokia emerging market sales come from single India, which makes it a major enterprise .Rapport IDC India sales declining market suggest that share of Nokia on the larger emerging markets may also refuse to usefully.

We believe that the market shares of Nokia in emerging markets (India, Brazil and China) will decrease by 40% in 2009 and 34% at the end of the forecast period Trefis.

If, however, the market share decreases at a faster rate to 20 per cent by 2016 to 34% that we currently forecast, it could a 20% reduction for the Trefis price estimate $12.33 for Nokia stock.

Factors behind this rapid decline

Nokia is in competition with Apple and Research in motion market high-end mobile phones and with LG, Samsung and Sony telephony market mobile value.However, the emergence of local actors in India asked a more difficult competitive threat to enterprises of Nokia.Nokia has been losing a part of new Indian mobile companies such as Micromax and Spice Mobile Karbonn mobile because she neglected popular trends in the Indian market of mobile phones.Nokia has also been slow to identify popular features such as dual SIM card phones and networking sociales.Dans applications simultaneously, competitors have invested massively in advertising campaigns that have helped to grow rapidly.

Enough dual SIM cards:In recent years, many Indian consumers have begun to maintain multiple accounts mobiles.Les reasons include costs and the need for different phone numbers for official purposes and personnelles.En result, combined with dual SIM card capacity have become very popular.Nokia has shifted its competitors together card double SIM market handsets.

Limited social networking capability:Aboriginal youth were early adopters and enthusiasts of social networks mobile.Nokia was late to enter the arena of networking social.En revenge, rival Samsung has increased its share of market in large part due to the success of its popular Corby phones which include extensive social networking functionality.

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Investor only, for fear of low level hint top market

All investors and traders are aware, investors is an indicator of "contrary", still at high levels of optimism and convenience market top and extreme levels of fear and bearishness at the bottom of the market.

Because the feeling can stay at extreme levels for some time, it can serve as both the market, but when it reaches the extremes, it serves as a warning to keep an eye on signals and other conditions.

Weekly by Association member survey results us individual investors (Institute) published last night and only to 49.6% and bearishness 25.2%, a spread of 24, 4. survey reached 50.9% upward a month earlier, so that it remains in its area distributed to increase to approximately 50 %.Il warning reached only 48.5% bullish, 29.7% bearish top April this year.

Index VIX (aka fear index) is also showing a low level of fear (high level of only and convenience), bouncing around 20 in the region associated with trays of rally since the last bull market has ended in 2007, as marked by the red vertical lines in the table below.

And October 12 investors Intelligence Sentiment survey showed 47.2% bulls, bears only 22.5%.

Thus, it would be wise to at least be aware of the situation of feeling at this stage, particularly with the Dow Jones index internal resistance as measured by its index of relative in negative divergence with last high index Dow Jones (its lower highs is RSI) .c ' is also the situation in previous rallies this year, as marked by short red lines tops on the map.

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A market always playground for the Bulls, crashes after Apple, IBM support

Market dismissed by suddenly this morning after non-bonne compensation - enough tech and tightening China interest rates. Gold is great, and the dollar is finally mobilize on the topicality of China and the affirmation of the Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner that the debasement of the currency is not a viable strategy for recovery.

S & P 500 continued lower trade in action early in the morning and received many short, but the market held its first support level around 1162-1165.

Take a look at the chart. We were about eight of these channels were broken, moves to directional significantly.You can't say yet whether this will lead to another, but you don't have to know enough to clean up some positions at this stage and reduce your exposure.Any active trader must be base long so far.

Support large is 1148-1155 if this field holds this market is super strong.

Special offer: energy stocks like Halliburton and Transocean were strong, therefore métaux.Cliquez here to find out that oil stocks and gold and the Intelligent ETFs in institutional buyers are now acquired merchants building oil and gold monitor.

Substantial assistance is 1128-1132, and I think if we get here will certainly be and be a unique opportunity to purchase once plus.La question is: can us it y? I repeat, it seems that the market is scheduled for a rest and it is time to clean up some positions after moving 1060 - 165-1185.

A fence in 1162-1165 put this last ascending channel in danger, but now beta most high-tech stocks are hollow and bear, walk even once, do not have many powers .c ' was the day for bears try to take the elevator down, but buyers intervened to obtain "deals."If this level holds today, they are in serious trouble.

We had come to pull in recent weeks after a steep rise in earnings season meat and the combination of factors have a nice excuse to dip slightly.

I've exchanged just around for some chops of Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Baidu.com momentum (BIDU), Google (GOUD) some of banques.Ils has given you a way if you were long and allowed for a fun off the coast of the hollow trade if you arrived at plat.Si this market was weak, they not have let the weakness of beginning bulls trade and you trapped.

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