Two degrees Celsius.This is the limit of global warming must not be exceeded, according to scientists, to avoid the worst damage of climate change.If the mercury rises further, the loss of agricultural productivity in arid multiply famines.Heat waves and floods will multiply the number of their victims.Parasitic diseases such as dengue or malaria, will spread to new territories and water shortages will affect hundreds of millions of people.
For some, the climate summit taking place from December 7 to 18, Copenhagen, looks like the last chance.For the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.He must hurry to find him a suite.
During 11 days, delegates from 192 countries will gather in the Danish capital to discuss the details of a new protocol.This will be the 15th major international conference of the UN Climate Change.The first was held in Berlin in 1995.The Kyoto took place in 1997.The countries committed themselves to collectively reduce their emissions 5.2% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) under the 1990 level by 2012.Thirteen years later, the failure is cooking.GHG emissions have now reached record levels.They jumped 41% since 1990.
Since the Bali conference in 2007, it was clear that Copenhagen would be the decisive opportunity to sign a new protocol.Since then, discussions have been initiated; draft protocols discussed.Despite these efforts, there is every indication it will take a miracle for a binding protocol to be signed in Denmark.
Leaders and dunces
Limiting warming to 2 ° Celsius is not an easy task.Industrialized countries must commit to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 compared to 1990.To avoid calling reduction efforts indefinitely, an interim target of 25% to 40% by 2020 should be fixed now.
In preparation for the Copenhagen summit, the EU has already indicated it would commit to reducing its own emissions by 20% by 2020 and 30% if an international agreement is concluded.Quebec has followed suit, with a target of 20%, which may be revised upwards by the engagement of its main economic partners.
They will demonstrate an extraordinary powers of persuasion to rally other countries to their position.For alongside the good students are the dunces.
1st row, Canada, whose emissions have never ceased to increase since 1990.Ottawa will be limited to a reduction of 3%.Saudi Arabia, for one, do not hesitate to say publicly that it wishes the failure of negotiations in Copenhagen.
Between platoons leaders and that of the tail, are countries like Australia, ready to commit to a 25% discount if everyone agrees, but only 5% if no international agreement nis concluded.In the United States, the Obama hopes to pass the Senate by a reduction target of 20% ...compared to 2005 levels.It must work twice as hard to get the agreement of the Senate before early December.
The weight of emerging countries
While industrialized countries struggle to see how far they intend to engage the emerging countries are refining their position, they intend to defend tooth and nail to Copenhagen.The members of G77 - a group of developing countries led by China and India - they deny formally imposes binding targets for reducing greenhouse gases.After all, they say, rich countries have grown by burning fossil fuels.Why the South they would deprive themselves to do the same?
China, it must be emphasized that leads ambitious actions on its territory to reduce its emissions.She refused however to be imposing a target by the international community.
The G77 countries will advocate for increased financial assistance by industrialized countries to poorer states to help them adapt to climate change.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes notably the Maldives, Grenada and part of the Bahamas, outright advocate for the survival of its member countries.Rising sea levels could be wiped off the map.These countries require countries responsible for global warming to pay them billions of dollars in damages.
According to calculations by the European Union, it would pay $ 100 billion annually to developing countries.But no state has yet put any money on the table.
In all likelihood, the Copenhagen summit will be a "step".States are already talking about extending the negotiations in the months following the conference, even over a year.Negotiations in December thus lead to a large international declaration marking the urgency to act.No protocol of Copenhagen.But a miracle is always possible ...
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