Perhaps this was not a good idea to boast about QE2
Overdue on economic growth in the third quarter report was published on Friday morning and was somewhat pleasant surprise.Après decline of 5.0% in the fourth quarter of last year annualized growth rate, GDP growth declined 3.7% in the first quarter of this year and only 1.7 per cent in the second quarter.
He had many economists concerned by a double dip recession, especially after economic reports for July and August, the first two months of the third quarter showed sharp drop in sale auto sales house and confidence of consumers and businesses. Some economists have been projecting third quarter growth could be as low as 0.6% and a negative growth (recession), although the consensus forecasting that GDP was 2.1% in the third quarter.
Thus, it is good news for the economy than the consensus it got right, with the report showing the third quarter GDP growth of 2.0% improved.It also good news in the report was that the growth was driven by an increase of 2.6% of consumption, since accounts consumption for 70% of the Federal Government américaine.Dépenses economy is also added to GDP increased by 8.8% to an increase of 9.1% in the second quarter.
In another sense, the u.s. trade deficit continued to weigh on growth as the imports increased from 17.4% while exports grew by 5.0%.And company pessimism weighed on business expenditure.
Although still anemic and too slow to improve the image of the job to some degree, the new economy is some in the third quarter was good news for street Main.Toutefois news perhaps not the only good on Wall Street.
As I mentioned in my column last weekend, the Fed seems to panic after the stock market plunged in the month of August in its worst August in years, as the economic reports continued to worsen .the Fed appeared to abandon its forecast of only a temporary slowdown in growth during the months of summer, but not in recession, and then a return to growth in the second half and by next year.
At the beginning of September he was suddenly referring and then practically promising, an extensive series of quantitative easing further to save the economy.
As stock markets around the world began mobilizing off the coast of their lower-end of August and produces the rarity of a major rally in September and October, historically the worst two months of the year.
However, now we have the report growth of GDP decreased further in the third quarter, but improved, while the recent economic indicators showed retail sale house sales, manufacturing and consumer confidence are all checked, while unemployment benefits fell for three straight weeks.
As I suggested in my column last weekend, the Fed can now be wishing that he had never mentioned quantitative easing or virtually guaranteed markets an extensive program of relaxation, that the extent of which he will announce after the meeting took place next Wednesday.
Global markets have taken into account in considerable relaxation program that appeared to be promised, with projections that might constitute a "shock and awe" approach as of 1.5 trillion dollars.Cette projection and the large stock market rally factoring waiting in the price of the shares lifted not only the stock market, but feeling of the investor, who is now at an extreme optimism and convenience often associated to top of the market.
Thus, the market was worry that these economic reports are good for the economy is perhaps not very good for the stock market, if it causes the disappointing Fed next week by launching only a symbolic facilitate amount quantitative to keep his promise relaxation and the stock market has factor of shock and awe relaxation he spent two months factoring.
The third year of the four year cycle presidential, historically the most positive for four years, looking again however, is now but a few months later.
This entry transmitted via the service for full-text RSS - if this is your content and you read on someone to another site, please read our FAQ page fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php
Article five filters features: After Hiroshima - non-rapport Cancer Catastrophe of Fallujah.
No comments:
Post a Comment